Eight Underfunded Candidates Who Could Win if This is a “Year of the Woman”

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Oct 1

The 1991 confirmation hearings for Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas outraged many American women. The televised images of a Senate committee, composed exclusively of men, sharply questioning Anita Hill led many to wonder where the women senators were. Watching the hearings, Washington state Sen. Patty Murray asked herself, “Who’s saying what I would say if I was there?” Later, at a neighborhood party, as others expressed similar frustrations, Murray spontaneously announced to the group, “You know what? I’m going to run for the U.S. Senate.” The following November, the relatively unknown Murray (then just a “mom in tennis shoes”) defeated her Republican opponent, despite being outspent by him by a considerable margin. That year, across the country, a record number of Democratic women were elected to Congress and 1992 became known as “the Year of the Woman.”

But had more Democratic donors at the time noticed what was happening, the results might have been even better. For instance, in Pennsylvania, Lynn Yeakel had fundraising problems, was outspent by incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter 2 to 1, and was defined by a bombardment of negative television ads; she nearly beat Specter anyway.

Thirty years later, the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization may have a similar impact. This time, the resulting outrage is focused not only on elections for Congress — where Democrats hope to codify the reproductive rights that had been enshrined in Roe v. Wade — but also on the state legislatures, which now have the power to decide the extent to which abortion will be legal. Once again, there is the danger that some Democratic women might lose simply because they don’t have the same fundraising clout as the Republican men they are running against.

So who are the Democratic women who have a chance to surprise in ’22, if they can ramp up their funding to get their message out in the final weeks of the campaign? And which of those elections will have the greatest impact on reproductive rights, and our politics more generally?

To find out, I drew up a list of Democratic women running against Republican men for Congress, or for the state legislature. They are all candidates running in swing districts in swing states (districts where Biden won by small margins, in states where Biden won by small margins). They are all running in places where polling data indicates that abortion should be a net positive issue for Democrats, and where flipping a seat could make the difference between abortion being available or not. And they all have relatively little cash on hand, according to their latest campaign finance reports.

I’m recommending eight candidates that meet these criteria and who are running in just four key battleground states: Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Arizona

Arizona is currently ground zero for abortion rights, as a state court recently reinstated an 1864 law that mandates two to five years of prison time for anyone who provides abortion in almost every instance including rape or incest. The public is not on board: Arizona is a +13 abortion rights state (54% of Arizonans say abortion should be “mostly legal,” while only 41% say it should be “mostly illegal”).

Eva Burch (Arizona State Senate) - A single parent, Burch sold her home and moved into an apartment with her two young children so she could go back to school and become an ER nurse. Now, she is running against Trump-endorsed retired police sergeant Robert Scantlebury in a new Mesa-area district that President Joe Biden won by 6%. Scantlebury favors an abortion ban with no exceptions for rape or incest.
Cindy Hans (Arizona State Senate) - A public middle school principal, Hans is running against incumbent State Sen. J.D. Mesnard in a district where Biden prevailed by only 0.9% in 2020. Mesnard favors an abortion ban with no exceptions for rape or incest. (For more about this race, see the Blue Tent Endorsement.) If Hans and Burch can get elected, Democrats will likely win a power-sharing arrangement with half the seats in the State Senate, something they haven’t had since 2002; that would give the Democrats an equal say in drafting state legislation on abortion and everything else going forward.
Kirsten Engel (U.S. House of Representatives, Arizona): Engel, an environmental lawyer, is a state legislator running for an open seat in the U.S. Congress in a new district east of Tucson. She is challenging incumbent Dave Schweikert, who advocates for a national abortion ban with no exceptions for rape or incest — just like the state ban in Arizona. The new congressional district went for Biden in '20, but only by 0.1%. (For more about this race, see the Blue Tent Endorsement).

Michigan

Michigan also has an old law on the books that would make abortion illegal, although a lower-court judge recently ruled that it violated the state constitution. An amendment to the state constitution to explicitly guarantee abortion rights will be on the ballot in November. But even if the amendment is enacted, it will be left to the state legislature to define how it affects access issues such as parental consent and waiting periods. Meanwhile, as a result of a nonpartisan redistricting process, Democrats have a chance to flip both houses of the state legislature. Michigan is a +16 abortion rights state (55% of Michiganders say abortion should be “mostly legal,” while only 39% say it should be “mostly illegal”).

Veronica Klinefelt (Michigan State Senate) - A Macomb County Commissioner, Klinefelt is up against incumbent Senator Mike MacDonald in a new district that runs from Seven Mile in Detroit all the way up to northern Macomb County. Biden won the district by 2.3%. Not surprisingly, Kleinfelt is endorsed by Planned Parenthood and MacDonald by Right to Life Michigan.

Pennsylvania

Abortion up to 24 weeks is still legal in Pennsylvania, but the Republicans who currently control the state legislature want to change that, including by amending the state constitution. As in Michigan, Democrats have a chance to flip at least one house of the Pennsylvania legislature thanks to nonpartisan redistricting. Pennsylvania is a +13 abortion rights state (53% of Pennsylvanians say abortion should be “mostly legal,” while only 41% say it should be “mostly illegal”).

Mandy Steele (Pennsylvania House of Representatives): The first Democratic woman to be elected to her Borough Council, Steele is running for an open seat in a Pittsburgh and suburban district that was Biden +4. She has been endorsed by Planned Parenthood. Steele’s opponent, who happens to be the co-owner of a scrap metal business, has been endorsed by the leading anti-abortion group in that part of the state.
Anna Thomas (Pennsylvania House of Representatives): Born and raised in Bethlehem, Thomas grew up in a family of immigrants from Malaysia and India. If elected to this Lehigh Valley district, she would become one of the youngest members of the Pennsylvania legislature. Biden won the narrowest of pluralities in the new district, beating Trump 49.7% to 49.2%. Thomas’ opponent, incumbent Joe Emrick, has voted for bills to require either a funeral or cremation of abortion remains; prohibit an abortion based on the potential diagnosis of Down syndrome; and prohibit all dilation and evacuation abortions, and ban any abortion after 20 weeks without exceptions.
Ashley Ehasz (U.S. House of Representatives, Pennsylvania): Raised by a single mother, Ehasz, a former Army helicopter pilot, is running against incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick has a reputation as a moderate, but has voted for a nationwide 20-week abortion ban and to grant legal rights to fetuses. This Bucks County (Philadelphia suburban) district went for Biden +4.7 in 2020.

Wisconsin

Similar to Arizona, Wisconsin has a law from 1849 that could now make it illegal to have an abortion in almost every circumstance. So far, Governor Evers and Attorney General Josh Kaul have blocked enforcement, but Republicans are in reach of getting a veto-proof majority in the state legislature. If they get it, that law might take full effect.

LuAnn Bird (Wisconsin state assembly): When her husband was paralyzed in a construction accident 30 years ago, Bird, a young mother, learned firsthand that many of the local public schools were not accessible. So she got herself elected to the school board and worked to make them accessible. Now a grandmother, she is running for an open seat in a new district that Biden won by only 2.2%. Her opponent, Robert Donovan, has relied on strong backing from the Milwaukee Police Association (he is from a family of police officers) and so far has avoided answering questions about abortion.

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Wally Reuther (a pseudonym) is a former campaign research director and press secretary who now works to support public schools.

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