Cassidy Araiza
Editor’s note: Kirsten Engel lost her race by a margin of 1.4%. To see how other Blue Tent recommended candidates performed this cycle, read our full 2022 midterms rundown.
Competitive open congressional seats are a rarity in U.S. politics, but Arizona’s 6th District is just that. The incumbent, Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick, is retiring, but the newly redrawn district is more spread out and has a slightly more Republican lean than the district she represented. Still, it includes most of Tucson, which should give law professor and former State Sen. Kirsten Engel an edge.
Blue Tent views giving to Engel's campaign as a high priority. Below, we explore three key questions that small and medium donors should answer before supporting candidates. (See how we evaluate candidates.)
Is this race important?
Democrats will likely lose their House majority regardless of what happens in the 6th. But Democrats can still minimize their losses and put themselves in a good position to retake the House in 2024. So while this isn’t a top-tier race in terms of its importance, every seat in Congress matters.
Can Engel win?
Her opponent, Juan Ciscomani, is an experienced politico who was an adviser to Gov. Doug Ducey. He beat out some less credible Republicans in the primary, and should be a challenge. But neither candidate has an incumbency advantage, and the only public poll to come out of this district showed Engel as ahead. The new district went for Biden in '20, although only by 0.1%. She can certainly win.
Does she need money?
Engel isn’t doing too badly in the fundraising race; as of her latest financial report, she had raised $1.9 million to Ciscomani’s $2.5 million. But the Republican has a huge amount of super PAC money on his side, nearly $4 million having been spent to support him or attack Engel. Engel is in a winnable race and deserves more support than she’s getting, which is why we’re rating her a high priority for donors.