The Wisconsin State Capitol. Photo: MarynaG/Shutterstock
State legislatures in swing states may well play a central role in deciding the next presidential election. With Moore v. Harper, SCOTUS is now considering throwing the power of voters and the oversight of state courts to the wind, giving the legislatures free reign for setting federal election rules and even to decide the results. As a result of this looming threat, it is more important than ever that Democrats build legislative power in key swing states.
Moreover, in states that will or might have Democratic governors going into the 2024 elections, it’s vital to ensure that Republicans don’t get veto-proof majorities in the state legislatures, unchecked power they could use to disenfranchise voters and enact a range of extreme policies
The key states in the 2020 presidential election (including Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) will likely also be swing states in 2024. Biden triumphed in Arizona by a mere 0.3%, in Pennsylvania with 1.2%, in Wisconsin by 0.6%, and in Michigan by 2.8%; he lost North Carolina by only 1.3%. These are the states where donors should focus their contributions for state legislative candidates in 2022.
In Arizona, Democrats have a real shot at winning a power-sharing arrangement with half the seats in the state senate, a feat not accomplished since 2002. If Democrats achieve a tie, Republicans will be forced to negotiate a power-sharing agreement, creating a check on Arizona’s GOP.
In Pennsylvania, thanks to a neutral redistricting map, Democrats now have the opportunity to take a majority in the state House of Representatives for the first time since 2010. Also thanks to a neutral redistricting map, Michigan Democrats have the opportunity to gain a state senate majority for the first time since 1984.
Because of extreme Republican gerrymandering, Wisconsin Democrats have no new and shiny prize to look forward to as of this election cycle; but they must fight tooth and nail to prevent a Republican veto-proof majority. North Carolina is in a similar situation to Wisconsin.
Of course, Biden also won Georgia by the narrowest of margins, but because of gerrymandering, Democrats have very little chance to gain a share of legislative power there. However, the Republicans in that state also have very little chance of getting a legislative supermajority.
In considering how best to defend democracy, I researched what will likely be the decisive state legislative races in determining better outcomes—and which candidates in those tipping point races still need more money to come out victorious? To find the answers, I looked at candidates in marginally-Democratic districts (that voted for Biden in 2020, but just by a smidge) that seem still to be lagging behind in fundraising.
As of their most recent campaign finance reports, all nine candidates mentioned below had less than $200,000 in cash on hand. (Eight of the nine under-funded candidates are women, which perhaps is a reflection of still-unequal fundraising opportunities even for Democratic candidates.)
- Christine Marsh (Arizona) - A lively high school English teacher, Marsh is running to ensure that all Arizona students have the resources they need to succeed in their education. (She was the state's “Teacher of the Year” in 2016.) She also wants to make use of Arizona's "unique connection to the sun" to turn the state into a renewable energy powerhouse. Marsh was first elected to the Arizona Senate in 2020; her current opponent, Nancy Barto, was also elected to the Senate that same year. With the new legislative map, the two incumbents are now battling it out in a Phoenix district that Biden won by a meager 0.8% in 2020.
- Eva Burch (Arizona) - A single mother, Burch made the difficult decision to sell her home and move into an apartment with her two young children so she could return to school and become an emergency room nurse. Now she is running for state Senate and is up against MAGA police sergeant Robert Scantlebury in a new Mesa-area Senate district that Biden won by 6%.
- Cindy Hans (Arizona) - A public middle school principal, Hans is running against incumbent State Senator JD Mesnard, in a district where Biden prevailed by only 0.9% in 2020. (For more about this race, see the Blue Tent Endorsement).
- Veronica Klinefelt (Michigan) - A 30-year resident of Macomb who is currently a County Commissioner, Klinefelt has also served on the local school board and city council. She is up against incumbent Senator Mike McDonald in a district that now stretches from Seven Mile in Detroit all the way north to northern Macomb County. Biden won the district by 2.3%.=
- Diamond Stanton-Williams (North Carolina): A true jewel of a state house candidate, Station-Williams was a cardiac-care nurse before becoming the director of her hospital's ambulatory care department. A mother of three, she also was the first Black woman to be elected to her suburban town council and created the town’s first youth council. She is running for an open seat in a Charlotte-area district that Biden won by 4.5%.
- Valerie Jordan (North Carolina): Having been "raised on tobacco fields," Jordan distinguished herself as a teenage environmental justice advocate fighting to prevent the dumping of toxic chemicals. She went on to earn an MBA and become the first Black woman to serve on the state's Department of Transportation Board. She is running for an open seat in a rural district which runs along the Virginia border that went to Biden +3.7 in 2020.
- Mandy Steele (Pennsylvania): The first Democratic woman to be elected to her Borough Council, Steele has worked to bring back manufacturing to this region, especially in clean energy. She has also led a grassroots effort to build green infrastructure to control stormwater. She is running for an open seat in a Pittsburgh and suburban district that was Biden +4.
- Mark Moffa (Pennsylvania): As the child of a single parent, Moffa grew up with support from government programs for housing and nutrition, public schools and Medicaid. He was the first in his family to attend college, and went on to be the managing editor for a small publishing company, winning multiple national awards for his work. Moffa is running for an open seat in a new +1.9 Biden district in Bucks County (Philadelphia suburbs).
- LuAnn Bird (Wisconsin): When her husband was paralyzed in a construction accident thirty years ago, Bird, a young mother of two, learned first-hand that many of the public schools in Oshkosh were not accessible. So Bird ran for and got elected to the school board and worked to make them accessible. When septic systems in her neighborhood were failing, she got appointed to the sanitary district commission and got a sewer system installed. Now a grandmother of three, Bird is running for an open seat in the state assembly in a new district that Biden won by only 2.2%.
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