Recent Polls Offer a Roadmap of Where Money Is Needed Most to Help Harris Win
ArkHawt/Shutterstock
It’s great to see Kamala Harris making some gains in the past week since her debate with Trump. But make no mistake: she still has deep vulnerabilities as a candidate. Recent polls show where Harris is weakest—and where more funding for voter outreach is urgently needed.
Here are four takeaways from recent polls, along with recommendations for donors.
1. Voters still trust Trump more on the economy. In a major warning sign, Harris trailed 13 points in the recent New York Times/Siena poll on who likely voters trust on the economy, the top priority for most voters. Even two key Democratic constituencies, young people and Latinos, trust Trump more on the economy. Among non-college whites, Trump has a staggering 43-point lead. These alarming gaps underscore the importance of supporting voter outreach that centers a kitchen-table narrative. Our top recommendation here is Working America, which uses evidence-based tactics to persuade non-college voters to support Democrats.
2. Harris needs to do better in rural America. Much of Trump’s strength comes from his stratospheric margins in rural areas. Biden won in 2020 partly by cutting into that edge—enough to help decide outcomes in razor-thin states. Yet in another warning sign, Harris is trailing Biden’s rural performance; if that doesn’t change, she could lose the election. The Harris campaign and progressive organizing groups are making an unprecedented push to engage rural voters, who are more likely to cite the economy as their top issue than voters elsewhere. Democrats have a great story to tell here, given the Biden administration’s historic investments in rural America. The best way to help get that message out and drive up Democratic vote share in Trump country is to donate to the Rural Democracy Initiative, which supports voter outreach work across rural America.
3. Young voters are still not locked down. While Biden won young voters by 25 points in 2020, the Times poll has found that Harris does not yet match that strength. But the survey also revealed how Democrats could shore up this support, with young voters citing abortion as their top issue by a wide margin and trusting Harris more here by 52 points. Cutting into Trump’s lead with these voters on the economy, their second most important issue, is also essential. Your best one-stop option for supporting youth voter engagement in battleground states is the Alliance for Youth Action, which I recommended last week.
4. Women hold the key to a Harris victory. The best news for Harris in recent polls is her strong support among women, where she leads Trump by 11 points in the NYT poll. Women cite abortion as their number one issue and trust Harris more here by 35 points. What’s less clear from recent polling is Harris’s strength among white women, who make up nearly half the electorate in the must-win Blue Wall states. No Democratic presidential candidate has won white women since 1964, although Biden came within a few points. In a sign of how Dobbs has changed the electoral landscape, Michigan’s Gov. Gretchen Whitmer won 58% of white women in her 2022 run and Gov. Katie Hobbs also carried this group in Arizona. If Harris can replicate or exceed such margins in these and other battleground states, she has a very good chance of winning the election. To help her do this, we recommend donating to Galvanize Action, which uses evidence-based tactics to persuade white women to vote Democratic.
Unfortunately, there are other warning signs in recent polls. Most notably, many more Black voters say they plan to vote for Trump than did vote for him in 2020. While Biden won 91% of the Black vote that year, the Times poll had Harris at 82% with this group. Latino support is also weak for Harris compared to Biden in 2020. I’ll have more to say about these gaps, and how donors can help address them, in future posts.
