Memo to Harris Campaign and Democratic Super PACs on Funding the Grassroots Ground Game
To: Harris-Walz Campaign, Future Forward, and Democratic donors
From: Blue Tent
Re: The Ground Game is Still Dangerously Underfunded
Date: September 24, 2024
Even as Democrats celebrate the record fundraising success of the Harris-Walz Campaign, as well as that of campaign-aligned super PACs, critical pieces of the Democratic-aligned ground game remain dangerously underfunded.
Analysis by Blue Tent, an independent donor advisory organization, has found alarming funding gaps across the ecosystem of national, state, and local groups working to engage key Democratic constituencies. These gaps are especially acute among groups working to engage Black, Latino, AAPI, young, and cross-pressured voters in Presidential battleground states, as well as similar efforts aimed at flipping the House and holding the Senate.
The Harris-Walz campaign has taken important initial steps to redress this urgent funding shortfall by encouraging major donors to support 13 independent groups. It has also made record-setting transfers of funds to help down-ballot Democratic candidates.
Despite these steps, the balance of funding to date has been heavy on TV, digital, and other impersonal methods of mass communication. Funding has been inadequate for scaling up the in-person and individualized communication from local trusted messengers, which have proven to be most effective in both turning out and persuading infrequent Democratic voters.
While the Harris-Walz campaign is mounting an impressive field operation — the largest since the Obama era (which in 2008 had approximately 6,000 staff and 700 field offices), the ramp-up time for the Harris field operation has been much shorter and is likely to be most effective at reaching frequent voters. Harris’ field operation and its recommended list of field-vended efforts need major supplementation by the robust locally-rooted network of hundreds of local organizations operating across battleground states.
By all indications, Trump has a much stronger ground game than in 2020, with GOP mega-donor Super PACs pouring in hundreds of millions to supplement his campaign. The Trump campaign is coordinating closely with outside groups and targeting communities of color with grassroots organizing in unprecedented ways (with Trump’s top political advisor Susie Wiles taking her GOP Florida model national) as well as building scaled relational programs to turn out every possible Trump supporter in white and rural communities.
To counter this push, Democrats must move quickly to bolster local trusted messenger outreach to key Democratic constituencies that could make the difference between victory and defeat in crucial states and districts. Blue Tent recommends that the Harris-Walz campaign, Future Forward, and other parties take urgent steps to direct resources to the grassroots ground game, working in collaboration with leading funding intermediaries that have the contacts and infrastructure to move large sums of money rapidly to front-line organizations (see below).
A $100+ Million Funding Shortfall for the Ground Game
With six weeks to go before Election Day and early voting underway in multiple states, Blue Tent’s investigation of resources needs among grassroots voter groups finds that many top organizations, including key state-based and multi-state organizations such as Black Voters Matter Fund and Mi Familia Vota, are facing multi-million-dollar funding gaps.
Funding gaps refer to the difference between the budgeted cost of planned voter outreach efforts and money raised so far for these activities. Current gaps, some of which are detailed in a recent report by Movement Voter PAC, total over $165 million and affect both national and state-level organizations that played a critical role in helping Democrats win tight races in both 2020 and 2o22. Key players in the grassroots voting ecosystem have told Blue Tent that multiple key groups will be forced to scale back planned efforts to engage key constituencies in must-win battleground states without immediate infusions of support.
The funding shortfalls cited by many organizations are modest compared to the sums raised by the Harris-Walz campaign, Future Forward, and top super PACs in an election likely to cost over $10 billion. Shortfalls cited by most voter groups range from $500,000 to several million dollars.
Still, a failure to close these gaps will leave votes on the table and could cost Harris the election as outreach to key Democratic constituencies falls short in states where outcomes could be decided by a relative handful of votes. Recent polling underscores how much work remains to be done, with Harris yet to match Biden’s 2020 support among Black, Latino, and young voters. Polls also show that Latinos and young people still trust Trump more on the economy, which is overwhelmingly the top issue for Latinos. In addition, even as Harris has closed the enthusiasm gap, polling shows that BIPOC and young voters still say they are less likely to vote than other Americans by substantial margins. Barriers to voting, some erected since 2020 in critical battleground states, may exacerbate this problem.
Locally-rooted voter engagement groups are best positioned to address these urgent challenges. They have invested over many years to earn the trust of BIPOC and young voters and have the cultural competency needed to be effective in a diverse array of communities. These groups have well-trained teams in place with experience over multiple election cycles and have already ramped up to knock on millions of doors. It is critical that they have the resources they need to scale their planned programs in the final weeks of the election.
Funding Priorities for Victory
Democratic successes in recent election cycles have been the result of a powerful partnership between a dynamic Democratic Party and allied national super PACs on the one hand and, on the other, hundreds of locally-rooted grassroots groups working in communities nationwide to engage voters. This potent combination of forces has not yet been fully realized in this election, given the relative underfunding of the grassroots ground game.
To address the current imbalance of resources and ensure the broadest possible outreach to key Democratic constituencies in the coming weeks, Blue Tent recommends that the Harris-Walz campaign work with allied entities and top donors to direct funds to the following priorities:
1. Support Statewide Voter Groups. Many of the organizing groups with the deepest experience working in battleground states urgently need an infusion of funds to carry out planned voter contact programs. In Arizona, for example, LUCHA and Our Voice, Our Vote aim to knock on more than 1 million doors this year—but have a combined funding shortfall of close to $10 million. In Georgia, the Black Male Initiative Fund faces a $5.2 million budget gap for its program, also to knock on 1 million doors, even as alarm bells sound about Trump making inroads with Black men.
2. Support Multi-state Voter Groups. Top national groups that work across multiple battleground states are planning their most ambitious efforts ever to engage key Democratic constituencies, provided they can acquire the resources to fully carry out these plans. For example, Mi Familia Vota is now working urgently across nine states to boost Democratic support among Latinos and ensure these voters turn out in force. But it’s also scrambling to close a $17 million funding gap that threatens to curtail its planned outreach. Black Voters Matter, which works in multiple key states, still needs to raise an additional $6 million to engage voters who are an indispensable pillar of the Democratic coalition in states like Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
3. Support Groups Working to Hold the Senate and Flip the House. More support is needed for the grassroots ground game in must-win Senate states like Ohio and Montana. In California and New York, Democrats have the potential to flip 9 GOP seats in toss-up races. In both states, unprecedented coalition efforts are working to boost voter turnout: Battleground California and Battleground New York. Each of these coalitions still needs to raise substantial funds to fully implement their voter outreach plans. Local organizations are working to flip or protect House seats from New Mexico to New Jersey but remain under the radar and underfunded.
Conclusion: The Need for Urgent Action
Thanks to surging Democratic donor enthusiasm, a record level of money is flowing to help Harris and down-ballot candidates win this year. Unfortunately, Blue Tent’s analysis finds that critical voter outreach work is still deeply underfunded and puts Democrats at risk of losing the most important election of our lifetimes. Leadership is urgently needed to remedy this imbalance. Blue Tent recommends that the Harris-Walz campaign, Future Forward, and other super PACs, as well as major Democratic donors, work with leading field funding intermediaries such as America Votes, Building for Democracy (BFD), Committee on States, Democracy Alliance, Movement Voter Project, Pro-Democracy Campaign, Rural Victory Fund, Way to Win, Clean and Prosperous America, and others to quickly move additional resources to vetted ground game groups in pivotal states and districts.
