How to Help Democrats Win in Arizona This Year

Blog

Oct 8

Arizona has become one of the most important electoral battlegrounds in the country. Not only is it a swing state in presidential years, its Senate contests are normally very competitive, and its other statewide races can go either way, as well. Though the GOP has traditionally dominated the state’s politics, changing demographics and left-leaning voters coming in from out of state have made it possible for Democrats to win here, and while Republicans still control the state legislature, Democrats have been just on the cusp of taking majorities in the State Senate and State House in the last couple of cycles.

This year’s election features especially high stakes and includes both a gubernatorial and U.S. Senate race, contests for attorney general and secretary of state, and a number of key state legislative races that could again determine control of one or both chambers.

Blue Tent believes that Arizona is the single most important electoral battleground in 2022. Small donors have multiple high-impact giving opportunities in the state during these final weeks of the cycle. We recommend donating to the following:

Movement Voter Project Arizona Fund
Adrian Fontes, Secretary of State
Kris Mayes, Attorney General
Kirsten Engel, U.S. House of Representatives
Jevin Hodge, U.S House of Representatives
Eva Burch, State Senate
Eva Diaz, State Senate
Cindy Hans, State Senate
Christine Marsh, State Senate

Below, we run through the electoral landscape in Arizona and explain our recommendations, as well as why we are not recommending certain candidates.

Organizing and GOTV

Blue Tent generally recommends that donors prioritize giving for organizing and voter mobilization over candidates. Such work not only helps win races up and down the ballot, but helps to build progressive power over the long term, regardless of what happens in November. Supporting efforts to engage and turn out voters is especially important in the final weeks of an election, since close races are so often decided by who shows up at the polls.

But last-minute giving to grassroots organizations in an unfamiliar state can be complicated for donors, as it’s unclear from public information which groups most need money for their get-out-the-vote operation. For that reason, we recommend giving to the Movement Voter Project Arizona Fund. MVP has an impressive track record of distributing money quickly to front-line voter groups, as Blue Tent explained in this strong recommendation. We trust MVP to identify how money can be spent most effectively in Arizona at this late stage in the race, and so should you.

U.S. Senate

Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly is running for reelection, but as of the last campaign finance report, he had raised 10 times what Blake Masters, the Republican challenger, had brought in. More money will do little to help Kelly and he’s a low priority for small donors.

U.S. House

There are three congressional races that are truly competitive in Arizona: the 1st, 2nd and 6th districts. In the 2nd, incumbent Democrat Tom O’Halleran got redrawn into a more Republican district, putting him at pretty severe risk of losing his seat. He had more than $2 million in cash on hand in the last campaign finance report, however, and if he loses, it won’t be for lack of money. The 6th is an open seat where Kirsten Engel is running (read more about her here), and in the 1st, Democrat Jevin Hodge is hoping to unseat longtime GOP incumbent David Schweikert (read more about Hodge here). While both of the latter candidates are seen as having a low chance of winning by election forecasting sites — which has created challenges for their fundraising — we are more optimistic because each is running in a district that Biden won in 2020. We view supporting Engel and Hodge as a high priority for small donors who want to invest in overlooked House candidates.

Governor

Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs is running to end 14 years of GOP control of the Arizona governorship and she has a real chance to win. She’s been a successful fundraiser, outraising her opponent $4.4 million to $3.8 million as of the most recent data, but she has also faced a glut of independent expenditures from PACs. Still, we don’t view supporting her campaign as a great value for small donors, so she is not on our top recommendation list — although donors with extra resources should consider a donation.

Secretary of State

While Arizona is a purple state, the Republicans in the legislature are extremists who support bans on abortion and have launched multiple bogus investigations into the 2020 election. The Republican nominee for Secretary of State, Mark Finchem, is fixated on alleged voter fraud, and there’s a real possibility that if the GOP continues to control the state’s government come 2024, the party will do what it can to deny Democrats a legitimate win in the presidential election. Supporting the campaign of Adrian Fontes, the SOS nominee, is a high priority for small donors because of the high stakes of this race and because the last campaign finance reports showed Finchem outraising Fontes.

Attorney General

Kris Mayes, the Democratic nominee for AG, should be seen as a high priority for small donors for all the same reasons that Fontes should be. Her opponent, Abe Hamadeh, is a right-wing extremist with ties to nutty conspiracy theorists, and if Republicans maintain their triplex of the SOS, AG, and governor positions, the likelihood of a fair 2024 election will be substantially lower. (Mayes and Hamadeh had raised equal amounts of money as of the last financial report.)

State Legislature

Democrats have been within hundreds of votes of flipping the State Senate and State House before, but have been frustrated. In a dream scenario, Democrats could win both chambers and the governorship, which would allow them to legalize abortion in Arizona. Given the party’s track record here that isn’t particularly likely, but if they just won one chamber they would be able to block a potential GOP scheme to replace Arizona’s 2024 presidential electors.

Fortunately, many organizations and donors have long been aware of the Arizona legislature’s importance and several key candidates are well-funded this year. We are recommending just four candidates in these races, all of who are in key races and could benefit from last-minute donations: Eva Burch, Eva Diaz, Cindy Hans and Christine Marsh.

Diaz is a write-in candidate in the 22nd Legislative District, which should be a safe Democratic seat, but which is in jeopardy because the party’s nominee abruptly quit politics. His name is still on the ballot, and Democratic voters need to be aware to not vote for him and instead pick a write-in candidate. Blue Tent is following the States Project in recommending that donors give to Diaz.

Harry Cheadle