A 27-year-old first-time candidate wouldn’t normally be a great bet to knock off a long-term incumbent. But Jevin Hodge, a business consultant running to unseat David Schweikert, has a real chance, even in a tough year for Democrats. If Hodge wins, he’ll be Arizona’s first-ever Black member of Congress. It’s a plausible place for a Democrat to win, and Hodge deserves attention.
Blue Tent views giving to Hodge's campaign as a high priority. Below, we explore three key questions that small and medium donors should answer before supporting candidates. (See how we evaluate candidates.)
Is this race important?
We’re still operating from the assumption that it’s likely Democrats will lose the House this year. But for a chance to regain a majority in 2024, Democrats will likely need this seat. And replacing Schweikert, a fairly corrupt Republican, with a young Black legislator would be a big achievement.
Can Hodge win?
Schweikert is a battle-tested incumbent who has won some close elections in the past. But the newly redrawn 1st District is a little more favorable to Democrats — Biden won there by 1.5% — and Schweikert is coming off a tough GOP primary that involved a lot of negative ads. If that hurts him in the general, Hodge could have a path to victory. Public polling is pretty scarce, but one August poll found the candidates in a dead heat.
Does he need money?
The last campaign finance reports show Hodge at a slight fundraising advantage, $1.8 million to $1.4 million as of the end of September. This is good news, as Hodge has closed a fundraising gap in the last quarter and is in a decent position money-wise. But it's still an important race, and Blue Tent is rating Hodge a priority for donors.