Democracy is on the Line in This Wisconsin Election
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Editor's Note: This article has been updated to include recommendations for donors.
In April of 2022, the Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled 4-3 that the state had to implement legislative maps drawn by the state’s Republican legislature, despite overwhelming evidence the maps were designed to guarantee GOP dominance. The decision was a boon for Republicans in November. Despite Gov. Tony Evers increasing his electoral margins compared to 2018, and a razor-thin loss by Democratic Senate candidate Mandela Barnes, Republicans won six of the state’s eight congressional seats, a supermajority in the state senate, and came just a few seats short of a supermajority in the state house.
The reason for this strange mix of results is clear: Wisconsin is one of the worst-gerrymandered states in the nation. According to one analysis, Democrats would need to win upward of 58% of votes statewide simply to take a bare majority. As Wisconsin Democratic Party Chairman Ben Wikler put it in a recent online briefing, the high court has negated democracy in his state.
A chance to take back the court, and democracy
Nearly one year to the day of the Supreme Court’s 2022 ruling to proceed with the gerrymandered districts, Wisconsin voters will have their chance to reverse the Republican takeover of their state. In April, Wisconsin will hold elections for an open seat on the state Supreme Court – a seat that could decide the ideological majority of the court until 2026. As Wikler recently told Politico, the strangely timed off-year election “has implications that will affect national politics for years to come, really at every level of government.”
Indeed, a liberal majority on Wisconsin’s state Supreme Court could not only overrule the legislature’s gerrymander and produce new, fair maps for the state assembly and congressional districts, but reverse other anti-democratic rulings by the court, such as its 2022 decision to ban ballot drop boxes. Combined, the court maintaining or overruling those two decisions could make the difference between a total Democratic wipeout in Congress and the White House in 2024, or a historic victory.
But there is even more on the line in April’s election: Like many states, Wisconsin has had a statewide abortion ban on its books for over a century, a law that has suddenly become relevant again after laying dormant for 50 years. The state’s Supreme Court will inevitably face a challenge to the law’s constitutionality, and given the current gerrymandered makeup of the state legislature, it may be Wisconsin’s only chance to prevent the criminalization of reproductive rights for years to come. Likewise, a liberal Wisconsin high court could be a crucial firewall in the face of attempts to overturn the 2024 presidential election if the state once again favors the Democratic candidate by a narrow margin. In 2020, Wisconsin was the state that came the closest to overturning its results, with one conservative justice on the state Supreme Court joining the three liberals to prevent the Trump campaign from disqualifying thousands of legitimate votes.
A complicated process
Unfortunately, the path to a liberal majority on the state Supreme Court is hardly a straight line. In addition to being held at a strange time during an off year, Wisconsin’s judicial elections are fully nonpartisan, meaning that regardless of a candidate’s party affiliation and ideology, ballots will have no markings to help voters identify their preferred choice by proxy. Further complicating matters is the primary system, which is likewise nonpartisan. This year, four candidates are running in the February 21 primary, including two conservatives (Waukesha County Judge Jennifer Dorow and former state Supreme Court Justice Dan Kelly) and two liberals (Dane County Judge Everett Mitchell and Milwaukee County Judge Janet Protasiewicz). The top two vote-getters from the primary will face off on April 4.
There is a small possibility that two liberals or two conservatives could advance, though what’s more likely is that the higher vote-getter on each side will win. The state’s Democratic Party is required to stay neutral in the primary, but is gearing up to put the full weight of its support behind either Mitchell or Protasiewicz for the general. We recommend that donors take a similar approach, but begin now in getting their money to the state party and organizations on the ground, particularly those focused on voter contact. Some of the groups donors can support include A Better Wisconsin Together, America Votes and the Movement Voter Project’s Wisconsin fund.
In an election where party affiliation is unlisted and most voters are unlikely to be paying much attention, it’s vital that the campaigns and outside groups get their candidate’s name out and define themselves and their opponents as quickly as possible. This is especially important as both conservative candidates already have slightly stronger name recognition: Dorow, for presiding over one of the state’s highest-profile trials in recent years, and Kelly, himself a former state Supreme Court justice.
After the primary, donors can reassess and give directly to the candidate, but they might not even have to. In Wisconsin, the state Democratic Party can accept unlimited contributions and make unlimited transfers to candidates. In recent calls with supporters, Wikler has made clear that his party is laser-focused on putting all of its resources into winning in April. We’ll also be revisiting this race after the primary and helping to guide donors to their best options for giving. However, donors certainly shouldn’t sit on the sidelines for long: In less than three months, Wisconsin voters may cast the ballots that decide their state’s politics for the next three years — with major ramifications for American democracy writ large.
Based on analysis by Focus for Democracy, which specializes in identifying the most cost-effective electoral strategies, we're recommending that donors give to Working America and Movement Labs. We've promoted these two groups before, both of which are known for using evidence-based tactics to turn out Democratic voters at a low cost. Each has a sophisticated strategy to engage and mobilize Wisconsin voters over the next few months to win the Supreme Court race. Please give now. This is the most high-impact donation you’ll have a chance to make in 2023.