A Scary Poll, a Good Election, and What Donors Should Do Next

Photo credit: Shutterstock

I’m a fan of the wise maxim “control what you can control,” which is helpful for managing the stress of our current political moment. 

The outcome of the 2024 election will be affected by any number of factors that you and I can’t do a damn thing about. We have no control over whether third-party candidates run for office, cutting into Biden’s vote share. Nor can most of us affect how the war in the Mideast goes, or what happens with inflation, interest rates, and gas prices. 

But there are other areas where we can have an impact. 

Consider a huge problem facing Biden, which is that he’s far less trusted than Trump on the economy. That terrifying New York Times/Siena poll found Trump leading Biden in this area by more than 20 points, echoing many other polls showing that Democrats aren’t trusted to handle the economy — the number one issue for most voters. 

If this deep distrust endures, it could cost Biden the election. How can donors help shift the narrative here? By supporting progressive organizations that are explaining to people how Democrats are building an economy that works for everyone. 

Telling an Economic Story

I’m thinking of a group like the Rural Democracy Initiative, which created the Winning Jobs Narrative, a powerful tested framework for talking about work and opportunity in ways that resonate with voters. RDI is also advancing a bold rural policy agenda and promoting the historic investments that the Biden administration is making in rural America, working with community-based groups to spread the word. These efforts are part of a broader push by organizations on the left to speak to, and deliver for, rural communities who feel left behind. If Democrats can simply “lose by less” in such places, it could have profound effects on electoral outcomes in key states. 

Or consider Working America, another organization that Blue Tent recommends to donors. With both a c3 and c4 arm, Working America uses door-to-door outreach and other strategies to engage working-class voters in a sustained and meaningful way. It tells a story about how key progressive priorities can improve people’s lives — and it builds the trust needed to get people to listen. Then, at election time, it leverages these relationships through tested, cost-effective GOTV efforts to mobilize voters. 

Much has been said about the failure of Biden to sell his economic record and how Bidenomics has been a flop with voters. These obituaries are premature — and also miss a crucial truth. In our era of intense public cynicism, political leaders have a limited ability to persuade voters of anything. As a result, our best hope for changing people’s minds about Democrats and the economy lies in empowering “trusted messengers” — organizers and activists who’ll get a hearing because they’ve built strong ties in communities.

Trusted Messengers are the Most Effective Persuaders

If you agree with that logic, then give accordingly. Direct your money to groups that are forging relationships with voters and can be effective persuaders — as opposed to giving to the Biden campaign and DNC, which is currently pouring millions of dollars into ads touting the President’s economic achievements. 

I’m not saying that such ads never work or aren’t important. But rather that the allocation of Democratic donor dollars is too heavily tilted toward a broadcasting model of persuasion that has ever less traction in our age of distrust. More resources need to be shifted to groups working to authentically connect with voters. 

Blue Tent recommended two such groups in the lead-up to the Virginia elections, where Democrats triumphed by retaking the House of Delegates and holding the Senate: New Virginia Majority and CASA in Action. Both organizations have built strong grassroots ties in the state, especially in communities of color. And, this fall, they leveraged these relationships to turn out voters for Democratic candidates in key districts. NVM, which has been organizing in Virginia for more than 15 years, knocked on nearly 300,000 doors and made 113,000 phone calls to voters.

Tuesday was another great election day for Democrats. But make no mistake: the 2024 election will be very close. Let’s not lose sleep over the bad things that could happen next year. Instead, let’s control what we can control — and give as effectively as we can.

Photo credit: Ringo Chiu/Shutterstock