The Senate is the most important electoral battleground of 2022. It’s so important and will be so bitterly contested that you’ll be sick of hearing about it, if you aren’t already. Senate races are always among the highest profile in every election cycle, and the Senate is so closely divided (split evenly between the parties 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking the tie) that each of the six or seven truly competitive races could decide control of the entire chamber.
Though midterm cycles are normally bad for whichever party is in power, the 2022 Senate map isn’t too terrible for Democrats, as they are competing to hold onto seats in states President Joe Biden won two years ago, or else take Republican-held seats that are open or have an incumbent who is (theoretically, at least) vulnerable.
In our candidate recommendation methodology, Blue Tent lays out our three criteria for races that small and medium donors should prioritize: They should be important, winnable, and the candidate should need money. Two of these criteria are easily met in most of the Senate contests we discuss in this brief: They are clearly important and many of them are eminently winnable. But the third condition is trickier to meet. The stakes are so high that nearly all close Senate races are being flooded with money. As we explain in this brief, that makes them relatively unattractive for small and medium donors with limited funds. First we’ll outline why the Senate matters, then go through the competitive races, and finally go over the giving options, and why we generally aren’t highly recommending that donors give to these races.
What’s at Stake
Control over the Senate is first and foremost a requirement to passing legislation. But the Democrats’ narrow majority and the ideological diversity of their caucus has made passing bills a challenge for Democrats even though they hold majorities in both chambers of Congress. And it’s likely that Democrats will lose the House this year due to widespread dissatisfaction with Biden and the historical trend of the ruling party losing seats in midterms. Fortunately, even if Republicans retake both the House and Senate, they won’t be able to enact their own agenda because of Biden’s veto power. In other words, whatever happens in these Senate elections, the next Congress will likely be gridlocked, as it has been many times before.
But the Senate has an additional power beyond legislating: It controls confirmation of judges to the federal courts. In recent years, the old norm of the Senate generally confirming Supreme Court justices and lower court judges has been discarded, and Republicans have shown a willingness to obstruct the appointments of Democratic presidents using whatever excuse Sen. Mitch McConnell can dream up as a rationale. So if the GOP takes the Senate, they will be able to stop Biden from filling open Supreme Court and lower court seats. A GOP-controlled Senate could also obstruct appointments to the cabinet and other executive branch jobs, as well as launch investigations.
Eight States to Watch
There are eight important Senate races in 2022. The first four states discussed below are all rated “toss-ups” by the Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an indication that they are the most competitive.The Senate seats in the last two states are probably reaches for Democrats, with Cook, Sabato, and FiveThirtyEight rating them at least “lean Republican,” and Sabato rating Florida “likely Republican.” They’re still worth discussing, because they’re going to be the source of a lot of attention and money, and Democrats have at least a chance to win them.
Arizona. Here, Sen. Mark Kelly is defending his seat against whoever comes out of the GOP primary. Kelly has high name recognition and is a former astronaut, which never hurts. He will face a tough battle here, given how closely Arizona is divided politically—he won a special election in 2020 by less than 100,000 votes, and Biden won the presidential race that year by just under 10,000 votes, an incredibly slim margin. The fact that Kelly ran ahead of Biden is good, but his reelection will be very difficult—especially given the failure of Senate Democrats to pass Build Back Better or voting rights legislation, two top priorities of progressive grassroots groups in the state. In an interview with Blue Tent, LUCHA Co-Executive Director Tomas Robles Jr. said that his group was placing greater priority on key state-level races, an indication of possible flagging enthusiasm for Kelly among base Democratic voters. Still, Kelly has an ample war chest; in fact, he’s one of the most prolific fundraisers in the entire Senate and had $18 million in cash on hand at the end of 2021. Given Kelly’s strong financial position, Blue Tent currently sees supporting him as a low priority for small and medium donors. Read our analysis.
Georgia. Senator Raphael Warnock faces many of the same conditions as Kelly. Georgia was another state that just barely went for Biden, by a margin of 12,000 votes. Months later, Warnock won the runoff for the Senate seat by just under 100,000 votes, becoming the first Black Democratic senator from the South. Democrats should have no trouble being energized in Georgia, with Stacey Abrams running for governor and Warnock running for reelection. This will likely be an election on the knife’s edge, but Warnock should have no trouble on the fundraising front: He had nearly $23 million in cash on hand at the end of 2021. His opponent, like Kelly’s, is unknown, but it could be former football star Herschel Walker, who has a complicated history of domestic abuse and mental illness. Given Warnock’s strong financial position, Blue Tent currently sees supporting him as a low priority for small and medium donors. (Read our analysis.)
Nevada. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto is less well-known among rank and file Democrats than Warnock or Kelly, but she’s a reliable and uncontroversial vote in the Senate for Democratic priorities. When she was elected in 2016 by a three-point margin, she became the country’s first Latina senator. Nevada has been a bit more reliably Democratic than Georgia or Arizona, as well, with Biden winning here by 34,000 votes, which, in the relatively small state of Nevada, came out to about 2.4 percentage points over Trump. The last Senate race here, in 2018, was a decisive Democratic victory, with Jacky Rosen knocking off incumbent Dean Heller by five points. But 2022 will be a far more unfriendly national environment. Cortez Masto’s opponent will likely be either former attorney general Adam Laxalt (the establishment pick) or the outsider, the more Trumpy (though not endorsed by Trump) Sam Brown. Either way, Cortez Masto had a solid $10 million in the bank as of the end of 2021, which is why Blue Tent currently sees supporting her campaign as a low priority for small and medium donors. Read our analysis.
Pennsylvania. This state is a little bit more of a mystery. Senator Pat Toomey, the only Republican who holds statewide office, announced in 2020 he’d be retiring from politics, leaving a void in a state that Biden won by just under 80,000 votes, flipping it after Donald Trump’s victory here in 2016. On the Democratic side, the leading contenders are John Fetterman, a tattooed anti-politician who serves as lieutenant governor; centrist Rep. Conor Lamb; and State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, who would be the state’s first Black senator if he won. Fetterman currently is the frontrunner for the nomination based on recent polling, and has been a successful fundraiser. The Republican field is currently wide open. Whoever the nominees are, this will be an expensive and closely contested general election.
New Hampshire. This year's Senate race in New Hampshire is rated “lean Democratic” by Cook, Sabato and FiveThirtyEight, indicating that it’s considered a bit safer. Incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan caught a lucky break when Republican Governor John Sununu and former Sen. Kelly Ayotte, who Hassan beat in 2016, both declined to run. This means that Hassan will have a big name recognition advantage over her eventual opponent, whoever it is—and likely a big money advantage. She had $5.3 million in cash on hand at the end of 2021, a lot for a candidate competing in a small state. And though New Hampshire is capable of electing Republicans in statewide elections (Sununu is governor, after all), Biden won this state by seven points, Democrats won both House seats in 2020, and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen won handily in 2020, too, by over 15 points. In a bad cycle nationally, Hassan still could lose—if she does, Democrats are in trouble. Blue Tent currently sees supporting Hassan's campaign as a low priority for small and medium donors. Read our analysis.
Wisconsin. This is a tempting pickup opportunity for Democrats. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is very right-wing and has spent the entire pandemic spreading COVID misinformation. And while Trump won this state by just over a point, with Johnson running three points ahead of him, Democrats have logged victories since then, with Sen. Tammy Baldwin easily winning reelection in 2018 and Gov. Tony Evers narrowly unseating Scott Walker that year. The Wisconsin Democratic Party is generally hailed as a model of innovation among state parties, and whoever comes out of the primary will have a lot of money and infrastructure to challenge Johnson with. Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is the progressive favorite, State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski has an endorsement from EMILY’s List, and Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry had raised over $5 million as of the end of 2021.
North Carolina has a retiring Republican incumbent in Sen. Richard Burr, giving Democrats at least some hope here. The GOP primary looks like it will come down to former Gov. Pat McCrory (the favorite) and Trump-endorsed Rep. Ted Budd, while there’s little mystery around the Democratic primary: It’s going to be former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley. She lost her race for reelection to the court in 2020, but only by 401 votes, which means she did better than Biden, who lost by 26,000 votes. Meanwhile, Cal Cunningham lost his Senate race by a larger margin—but that was after he was caught in a sexting scandal. Beasley, who would be the first Black senator from North Carolina and the only Black woman senator if she won, will hopefully be a better candidate than Cunningham; the question is whether that will be enough to overcome a more difficult electoral environment. Notably among the Senate candidates we’re discussing, Beasley doesn’t have a huge war chest, with only $2.8 million at the end of 2021. That lag in fundraising is why Blue Tent views her as a “priority” giving target. (Read our analysis.)
Florida is a longshot. Incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio won easily in 2016, running more than three points ahead of Trump. And in 2020, Democrats suffered a string of bad losses in Florida, where Trump beat Biden by a larger margin than his 2016 victory. A series of articles about the disarray of the state Democratic Party followed. Still, Val Demings, who was chief of the Orlando police before becoming a congresswoman, is going to try to buck these trends and take down Rubio. She certainly will have plenty of money, with more than $8 million in cash on hand at the end of 2021. Blue Tent currently sees supporting Hassan's campaign as a low priority for small and medium donors. Read our analysis.
Options for Donors
Blue Tent recommends that small and medium donors place low priority on giving for Senate races at this time. Your money will have more impact elsewhere, especially in state-level contests. At the same time, the urgency of maintaining Democratic control of the Senate is sure to draw many donors to these races. Here are some ways to give.
Direct candidate giving is the most obvious approach, but for small and medium donors, giving to high-profile Senate campaigns is like adding your bucket of water to an ocean. Except for Beasley, the Senate candidates have been hugely successful fundraisers, and Beasley’s position as the presumptive nominee in North Carolina means she should have little trouble fundraising from here on in.
Donating to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) is another path. You can read more about the DSCC in our full brief, but it is not a group we highly recommend, as its strategy has not made much of a difference over the (admittedly tough) last few election cycles. We take an even dimmer view of the Senate Majority PAC, another big player in Senate races (read our brief).
Donating to state parties means supporting infrastructure that helps candidates up and down the ballot in a given state, but not all state parties are running on all cylinders—google “Florida Democratic Party losses” for a taste of that. Unless a donor is confident in a state party’s effectiveness, it’s probably best not to give to that group.
Donating to grassroots organizing groups. Our brief Giving to Elect Democrats and Build Progressive Power in 2022 explains the effectiveness of this approach. As with state parties, these groups do organizing work that boosts Democrats at all levels in a given state, and many are more innovative than official party organs. Groups that Blue Tent likes who are doing work in Senate states include LUCHA in Arizona, New Georgia Project and the Carolina Federation. The Movement Voter Project’s funds also offer an easy way for donors to support grassroots organizing groups in specific states.
Conclusion
We should all be doing as much as we can to help Democrats win the Senate. That much is obvious, and it’s obvious enough that donors are already giving in large amounts to Senate candidates. As we’ve seen in some recent high-profile elections, it’s possible for Democrats to outspend Republicans and still lose, which means there’s a certain point past which monetary giving to campaigns has diminishing returns, and even a point at which more money doesn’t help at all. At least some of these Senate campaigns are likely to cross those thresholds, meaning there are probably better, less obvious places for donors to give.