Secretary of state is a fairly obscure political office, at least in normal times. Though their duties vary somewhat depending on what state they’re in, secretaries of state generally do things like keeping records, registering businesses, running the DMV, and overseeing elections. These are administrative posts, in other words, and the job doesn’t often interact with newsworthy controversial partisan issues, making most secretaries of state pretty low-profile. Even politically engaged citizens may not know who their own state’s secretary of state is, or whether that person is doing a good job. But in 2022, several secretary of state races will be of vital importance. This brief explains why, identifies some races to watch, and explains to donors where they can give in order to have an impact.
What’s at Stake
In recent years, the mechanics of voter registration and how elections are conducted has become politicized, thanks largely to a GOP push to make it more difficult to vote, especially for Black people and poor people. The Supreme Court’s striking down of important elements of the Voting Rights Act in 2013 led to widespread closure of polling stations throughout the South, while Republican state legislatures have passed laws requiring voters to have photo ID in order to cast ballots and also purging voter rolls in ways that risk striking down valid registrations. The GOP clearly believes that limiting turn out as much as possible benefits them, and have opposed Democratic efforts to expand voting by mail and restoring the VRA via the John Lewis Voting Rights Act.
This conflict between Republicans wanting to erect barriers to voting and Democrats wanting to make the process easier has only intensified after 2020, when Donald Trump and his allies spread baseless conspiracy theories about how the election was “stolen.” Trump even called Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (a Republican) to ask him to “find” votes. The new worry among Democrats is that if Republicans solidify control of the machinery behind elections, they will use it to rig the results in their favor, using nonexistent allegations of “fraud” as an excuse. In several swing states, Trump-backed conspiracy theorists are running for secretary of state, including in Georgia, where Raffensperger is facing a primary from his right. The presence of Trump loyalists in key election administrator posts should set off alarm bells for Democrats.
There’s a little bit of uncertainty about what these Trumpist secretaries of state could do, exactly. Election administration in the United States is a decentralized mess, with different states having different procedures. So in Georgia, for instance, county election boards have a lot of power, which is why it was such a big deal when the Republican state legislature passed a bill that gave it more control over these boards even in Democratic-dominated areas like Atlanta’s Fulton County. There’s no precedent for a secretary of state unilaterally changing an election result, or “finding” votes, as Trump asked Raffensperger to do.
But a Republican secretary of state could clearly do damage. A doomsday scenario might involve a closely contested count in a state like Michigan or Arizona; imagine Joe Biden has a narrow lead, but conservatives are calling the results fraudulent, as they did in 2020. But instead of standing by the process as Raffensperger did, a Trumpist secretary of state claims there was indeed widespread fraud and publicly says the results shouldn’t be certified. Then the legislature of the state in question (in this worst-case scenario, also controlled by Republicans) uses that as a pretext to declare the Republican presidential candidate has won their state’s electoral votes, overriding the will of the voters—something which some conservatives urged GOP lawmakers to do after Election Day 2020.
That might not come to pass, but Republican secretaries of state could gum up the works in more prosaic ways. Whereas Democratic secretaries of state focus on expanding the number of registered voters, a motivated conservative in the post could try to restrict access to the polls by making it difficult to register to vote. In Texas, the secretary of state’s office recently said it had a shortage of registration forms, making it harder for groups to register new voters. (Texas Democrats are printing these forms in an attempt to fill this gap.) That’s the sort of thing you can count on from Republican secretaries of state—and in a very close 2024 election, it could be the difference between victory and defeat.
States to Prioritize
All of the following states have the potential to swing the 2024 presidential election and will have closely contested secretary of state races:
- Michigan. Jocelyn Benson, the Democratic incumbent, is about as high-profile as a secretary of state can be. In 2020, at the height of the pandemic, she mailed absentee ballot applications to all of Michigan’s registered voters, a decision Republicans sued her unsuccessfully over; she’s currently in a battle with Republicans in the legislature over the procedure for matching signatures on absentee ballots. A GOP convention in April will determine her opponent, and the worry is it will be Trump-backed conspiracy theorist Kristina Karamo.
- Georgia. Raffensperger, who is running for reelection, is being challenged by conspiracy theorist Jody Hice, but that shouldn’t endear him to Democrats too much, as he embraces the usual suite of Republican voter suppression tactics. Candidates are currently competing to be the Democratic nominee, with the most prominent contender being Georgia State Representative Bee Nguyen.
- Arizona. The current secretary of state, Democrat Katie Hobbs, is running for governor, and several well qualified candidates are running in a primary to take her place. The thing that should worry donors is the other side of the slate—Arizona’s legislature has been absurdly active in investigating nonexistent electoral “fraud” in 2020, and all of the leading candidates believe in that conspiracy theory to one degree or another. Whoever comes out of the Democratic side will be well worth supporting.
- Nevada. This is another open secretary of state post. Incumbent Barbara Cegavske—a Republican who was censured by her own party for not conducting a bogus “investigation” into the 2020 election—is term-limited, which is sort of a shame. She’s been praised for her professionalism and nonpartisanship, while the Republicans running to replace her see those qualities as negatives. As with the above two states on this list, there are primaries happening on both sides. Nevada is the smallest of these target states, so fewer electoral votes are at stake here, but clearly, Democrats should fight to make sure that the election is as free and fair as possible.
Options for Donors
The outcome of secretary of state contests is likely to track closely with races for other statewide offices. Though the candidates for top state offices are all elected separately, at present, 40 of 50 states are “triplexes”—meaning that their governor, attorney general, and secretary of state all come from the same party. This reflects how increased ideological sorting within the parties has cut the number of split-ticket voters to an all-time low, and the exact same constituency votes for every statewide office. Because of the closely tied fates of the big three statewide offices, donors should consider both supporting secretary of state candidates directly, as well as giving to statewide organizing and Democratic turnout efforts as a whole.
- Donate Directly to Candidates. The most simple and obvious way to help secretary of state candidates is to give to them directly. Though the increased partisanship and media attention around these races makes it likely that there will be more money in these contests, they will still be cheaper than Senate or House races, and thus it’s more likely that small and medium-size donors can have an impact on these races. Blue Tent has rated Benson a high priority for this reason. The other states have primaries ongoing so Blue Tent isn’t advising donors to give at this time, but once the nominees are clear donors should definitely work to make sure that they have enough money.
- Give to the Democratic Association of Secretaries of State There are some nonprofits devoted to protecting voter rights but it’s difficult to find organizations laser-focused on secretaries of state in particular. One option for donors is the Democratic Association of Secretaries of State (DASS), a 527 nonprofit that can accept unlimited donations and is the official party arm in charge of these races. It has complained of being short of funds, but it also hasn’t fundraised as aggressively as more prominent Democratic Party committees, having only recently hired a permanent full-time executive director. But DASS is a good option for donors who are anxious about the state of democracy in America, watching these secretary of state contests with concern, and wondering how to help.
- Donate to grassroots organizing groups. As we explain in our recent brief, Giving to Elect Democrats and Build Progressive Power in 2022, giving for grassroots organizing in key states has a multiplier effect by supporting candidates up and down the ballot. This is especially worthwhile in the case of simultaneous statewide races, where broadly increased Democratic turnout will not only help candidates for attorney general, but for governor, secretary of state, and the senate. Some of Blue Tent’s favorite groups working in states with important AG races include LUCHA in Arizona and New Georgia Project. The Movement Voter Project’s funds also offer an easy way for donors to support grassroots organizing groups in specific states.
- Give to Democratic state parties. State parties can provide valuable support up and down the ballot, and a strong state party, along with a strong statewide grassroots effort, can help propel Democrats to victory in multiple offices at once. But state parties vary widely in their effectiveness and though people who work in Democratic politics generally know which are which, this information isn’t public. Blue Tent will be offering recommendations of strong state parties to support in coming months.
Conclusion
It’s unfortunate that the office of secretary of state has become so politicized. In the past there have been plenty of Republicans who have served in the post with distinction. It’s a mark of the GOP’s dysfunction that Republican secretaries of state who refuse to go along with bizarre conspiracy theories have been censured or face primary challenges.
Democrats ignore these developments at their peril. If conservative conspiracy theorists take over secretary of state offices, a guardrail keeping American democracy from plunging over the edge will have been removed. Normally secretary of state campaigns wouldn’t be a high priority. But these are not normal times.