Democrats face deeply challenging House elections in 2022. Historically, stretching back even before the current major parties existed, the party in power has lost congressional seats. Political science has different explanations for this—it could be that the opposition party’s base is more fired up during these cycles, for instance—but the reason for the phenomenon matters less than what it portends for these midterms. If Democrats lose just five House seats, they’ll have lost the majority, and the ability to pass legislation for at least the next two years.
This brief lays out options for small and medium donors interested in supporting Democrats as they defend the House. As with the Senate, the majority of candidates in competitive races are doing very well with fundraising so far and there may be only limited opportunities for small and medium donors to really have an impact. Overall, Blue Tent generally recommends giving to grassroots organizations and state-level candidates rather than well-known House and Senate candidates (read our strategy brief for 2022 here). But the House is important, and even if Democrats lose it, they can hopefully retain enough seats to make it possible to win it back in 2024.
Before we dive into recommendations, it's important to note that redistricting hasn’t turned out nearly as badly for Democrats as many feared. Instead, a few court decisions went Democrats’ way, and in states where Democrats had control over the redistricting process, they were more aggressive than they had been before, creating chances for them to pick up Republican-held seats.
We shouldn’t be too optimistic about Democrats’ chances in the midterms, however. Even if the congressional maps aren’t as terrible as anticipated, they still have to deal with the bad fundamentals this cycle: Joe Biden’s approval rating has been underwater since August 2021, inflation is up, and gas prices are high, which can bode bad things for the party in power. While it’s tempting to imagine that Democrats will pick off all the Republican seats they’ve gerrymandered into vulnerability while retaining just enough of their own vulnerable seats to hold onto the House, we shouldn’t be overconfident. The most likely scenario is that Democrats will lose the House. Given all that, what should donors’ priorities be?
Priority 1: Make sure vulnerable Democratic incumbents are well funded.
No amount of money can change the fundamentals that are potentially a major problem for Democrats. There are going to be House candidates who lose not for lack of money, but because the Democrats are in a down cycle. That said, one thing donors can do is make sure that all the House candidates in competitive races have sufficient amounts of money to compete. If money doesn’t win races all by itself, a lack of money can hamstring campaigns.
The good news is that on this front, Democrats are doing well. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has been raising record amounts of money for the 2022 election cycle and individual candidates have also been doing well. If you look at the DCCC’s Frontline list (a good gauge for where the really at-risk members are), you’ll find that most of them had well over a million dollars in cash on hand at the end of 2021. That puts them in a good position going forward and is one indication among many that Democratic donors are as energized as they were during the Trump era.
But even though most Democratic House candidates have been going strong with their fundraising, the costs of running in highly competitive races can be enormous and it’s critical that donors at every level step up to help candidates in real need as the election approaches. In the coming months, Blue Tent will be closely monitoring the few dozen or so competitive House races and spotlighting those races where small and medium donors may be able to have an impact.
Priority 2: Don’t waste money on hopeless campaigns or the wealthiest House members
There are so many House races going on that it’s difficult for an average donor to know which are actually competitive, a dynamic that opens the door for unscrupulous campaigns to fundraise even if they have no realistic chance of winning. These campaigns can buy email lists from other candidates and organizations, so you may get solicitations from campaigns promising to unseat Marjorie Taylor Greene or Madison Cawthorn, or another despised Republican representative who has no chance of losing. If you’re curious about whether a given candidate has a path to victory, you should see if they are on the DCCC’s Frontline list or Swing Left’s list. (FiveThirtyEight has a tool that lets you see its rating of every congressional district if you want to take a deeper dive.)
The other side of the coin is Democrats in safe districts who are very accomplished fundraisers, like Speaker Nancy Pelosi and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. These members will sometimes distribute money to their more needy colleagues or pay “dues” to the DCCC, but they don’t need it to defend their seats. “Give money to Democrats who need it and have a chance to win” seems like it would be a simple rule to follow, but the fundraising numbers show that a lot of donors give without taking that rule into account.
Some sample members up for reelection
One of the most prominent at-risk Democrats this cycle is Virginia Representative Abigail Spanberger. The “national security Democrat” (and former CIA employee) is from the more centrist wing of the party, as are many of the names on the Frontline list. (Broadly speaking, most left-wing Democrats are in safe seats.) While redistricting has given her district a more Democratic lean than her old one, she’s still clearly a Republican target. Fortunately, she’s not hurting for money—she had $3 million in cash on hand at the end of 2021, making her a relatively low priority for donors at this time.
Less vulnerable (and not on the Frontline list) is New Mexico Representative Teresa Leger Fernandez, who took over the state’s 3rd District in 2020. She’s a Green New Deal–supporting progressive who earned endorsements from major left-wing figures in the party, and when she won the primary in 2020 her victory in the general election was assured, since the 3rd was a safe Democratic district. But redistricting has made this seat more vulnerable (in the process, Democrats earned a shot at winning the Republican-leaning 2nd District). Leger Fernandez will still be a favorite, but she could lose. She only had $534,000 in cash on hand at the end of 2021, and she should definitely be a target for progressive donors who want to keep her in the House.
The tricky thing is, if Leger Fernandez loses, or even if her district is seriously in jeopardy, it likely means Republicans will be winning a lot of seats that are to the right of New Mexico’s Third District—in other words they’ll have taken back the House. There are a few incumbents like Leger who would be vulnerable in a red wave scenario, but whose election won’t mean victory or defeat in the House as a whole.
Ideally, donors want to find someone in the sweet spot between Spanberger and Leger Fernandez—clearly vulnerable, but also underfunded. There aren’t too many obvious candidates who fit this profile.
One might be Pennsylvania Representative Susan Wild, a Frontline member who is in a “toss-up” race according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report but has $1.7 million in cash on hand—not a paltry sum, but not on the level of more famous members like Spanberger. If donors want to have an impact, they’ll have to find relative unknowns like Wild to contribute to.
Keep in mind that the financial situation of Democratic congressional candidates in competitive races is likely to change rapidly as the election approaches and spending on key races shoots upward. The 2020 cycle featured four of the 10 most expensive races of all time and it wouldn’t be surprising to see something similar this year. Some candidates may have no problem competing in this kind of money-saturated environment; others will need all the help they can get to match their opponent’s resources—including from small and medium donors.
Options for donors
- Direct candidate giving is always useful, but as the above examples show, it can be hard to find candidates who genuinely need money and are in competitive races.
- Donating to the DCCC means supporting the official arm of the party in charge of these contests, but we don’t recommend the DCCC very highly. To see why, read our brief on the DCCC.
- Donating through other intermediaries is a good option for donors who prefer one-stop-shopping to support Democratic House candidates, but aren’t keen on the DCCC. Blue Tent strongly recommends giving through Swing Left, which will distribute your money to incumbents in swing districts. Donors who want to customize where their money goes can do so through Swing Left’s Blueprint tool. Blue Tent is less keen on certain other intermediaries raising money for House candidates, most notably the House Majority PAC, which is closely tied to the party establishment. (Read our brief on HMP.) In general, donors should look for funds that distribute money to candidates without giving a cut to the organization that put together the fund. Always check the section of the ActBlue page that specifies who the recipient of your money will be—sometimes unethical orgs will imply that money goes to candidates when it actually lines their own pockets.
- Donating to grassroots organizations is a way to both help Democratic candidates running this year and to build progressive power over the long run—laying the groundwork for gains in 2024 and beyond, no matter what the outcomes in 2022. As we explain in our midterms strategy brief, giving to groups that register and mobilize base Democratic voters makes particular sense for small donors who want to affect the outcome of races for senate seats, governorships, and other statewide offices. In the case of House races, however, it can be tricky to identify which groups are active in which districts. It’s still important to donate to organizing groups like LUCHA in Arizona, New Georgia Project, Florida Rising, and the Movement Voter Project, which funds hundreds of groups throughout 49 states. But for donors interested in protecting specific House members, this is a less helpful path.
Conclusion
Wealthy donors who can spend tens of thousands during an election cycle might max out their donations to many House candidates and therefore don’t really need to think about where their money will have maximum impact. But if you only have a hundred bucks to give this cycle and want to be more strategic, it’s worth emphasizing that the vast majority of House candidates in close races aren’t having much trouble raising money so far, and it might be a good idea to look at state-level races or organizing groups. (Browse our top recommendations here.) There’s going to be a lot of money donated to House candidates this cycle—it’s going to be a challenge to make sure a lot of it isn’t wasted. The simplest advice for donors to follow is to give to funds that split the money between candidates in swing races.