How to Help Democrats Win in North Carolina: Donor Recommendations
North Carolina has emerged as a hotly contested swing state in the 2024 election. While a Democratic presidential candidate hasn’t won there since 2008, Joe Biden came very close — losing by just 1.3%. Kamala Harris has a strong chance of carrying the state this year, with polls showing the race as a toss-up. In addition, Democrats hope to win the North Carolina governorship and other key statewide offices, defend a U.S. House seat, and break a GOP supermajority in the state legislature.
To achieve these victories, Democrats need to build on their recent strong support from college-educated suburban voters while also catalyzing high Black turnout and increasing vote share in rural areas. Engaging Latinos and young people is also critical. Latinos comprise a fast-growing share of the eligible electorate but register and vote at rates way below the rest of the population. Likewise, turnout rates among North Carolinians aged 18-29 are far lower than that of older groups. Both Latinos and young people have heavily favored Democrats in recent elections, so increasing turnout in these two groups could be decisive this year.
Democratic candidates are running strong campaigns in North Carolina, starting with the well-funded Harris-Walz operation, which has offices around the state. However, traditional campaigns tend to focus on likely voters, with much of their spending going to ads. Reaching low-propensity voters in key Democratic constituencies or winning over persuadable voters in rural areas is more challenging. To engage these North Carolinians, Blue Tent recommends that donors support groups with a strong record of grassroots organizing and effective electoral work. Below, we explain what’s at stake in North Carolina this year and where to give to help Democrats win.
Democratic 2024 Election Goals in North Carolina
Win North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes. While carrying North Carolina is critical for Trump to win the election, Harris has clear pathways to victory without it. But putting the state into play greatly expands her chances of winning the White House.
Hold the governorship and other state offices. Democratic Josh Stein is running to replace Roy Cooper against Lt. Governor Mark Robinson, a MAGA Republican. Democrats also seek to retain control of the offices of attorney general and secretary of state while reelecting a Democrat to the state supreme court.
Break a Republican supermajority in the state legislature. GOP dominance of both houses of the state legislature has severely crimped the power of the Democratic governor. That hold can be broken by winning competitive state legislative races.
How Donors Can Help Democrats Win in North Carolina in 2024
Democratic success in North Carolina this year will require strong mobilization of key constituencies, as well as effective persuasion work. The good news is that progressive groups have been steadily building the outreach capacity to meet this moment and engage a record number of voters. They are engaged in a historic effort to register tens of thousands of new voters and knock on 4 million doors by Election Day, including extensive outreach in rural areas.
Donors should consider supporting two of the top groups leading this work. Both are highly recommended by the Movement Voter Project, a leading supporter of grassroots electoral organizations. Below are MVP’s recommendations for the two organizations:
Carolina Federation is a “member-led, independent political organization focused on six diverse urban and suburban counties – Durham, Guilford, Forsyth, Mecklenburg, Cumberland, and New Hanover. They will knock on 600,000 doors in 2024 for GOTV mobilization, as well as organizing chapters, holding community conversations, and organizing marches to the polls. Carolina Federation is one of the largest independent field operations in NC and is poised to vastly increase its impact this year and beyond.”
Down Home North Carolina is a “statewide membership organization that organizes a multi-racial, cross-class base in rural areas and small towns. Down Home was one of the three largest field programs in the state in 2022 and was a critical partner in the successful campaign to expand Medicaid in 2023. In 2024, the group plans to organize across 20 rural counties to knock 522,991 doors. Down Home will also fight to win in four potential pickup state House races where Democrats have been losing by roughly 1,000 votes or less. All told, the group’s 2024 program will span 20 of North Carolina’s 100 counties, in their largest field program to date.”
