Michigan is a must-win state for Democrats in 2024. Beyond its importance as a presidential battleground, Michigan will elect a U.S. Senator and has three competitive U.S. House races. It’s also essential that Democrats do well in races for the Michigan House of Representatives, a chamber they now control with a razor-thin majority.  

The good news is that Democrats can win in Michigan this year and beyond. Although the state’s electorate is closely divided politically, it has strong progressive organizing groups and an effective state Democratic Party.

Donors can help decide election outcomes in Michigan this year by investing in civic engagement organizations with a strong track record of registering and turning out likely Democratic voters in the state, as well as persuading undecided voters. Below, we explain what’s at stake in Michigan’s elections this year and spotlight several groups for donors to consider.

Democratic 2024 Election Goals in Michigan

While Democrats performed strongly in 2022 in Michigan, winning all key statewide offices along with trifecta control of the state government, Trump’s presence on the ballot this year may produce a far tougher fight. Non-college-educated whites make up over half the Michigan electorate and went heavily for Trump in the past two elections. 

Biden won the state in 2020 in large part by doing much better among college-educated whites than Hillary Clinton four years earlier, according to voter file data from Catalist. Blacks and Latinos voted Democratic at lower levels in 2020 than in 2016, but Blacks, in particular, were a key to Biden’s victory — making up 12% of the electorate and giving him 92% support. Here are the Democrat’s key goals in Michigan:

• Win Michigan’s 15 Electoral Votes. The success of Biden’s reelection bid could boil down to Michigan, where the president needs to sustain recent Democratic gains among white college graduates and replicate his large margins of victory in 2020 among Black and young voters — while ideally also matching Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s gain among non-college-educated whites in 2022. The governor won 47% of these voters, an eight-point improvement from Biden in 2020. 

• Hold an Open U.S. Senate Seat. With Senator Debbie Stabenow retiring, Democrats must hold her seat this fall to have a chance at continued control of the Senate. Rep. Elissa Slotkin is the Democratic nominee in this race. 

• Win Three Congressional Races. Election outcomes in Michigan may also decide who will control the U.S. House. Two Democratic-held seats — MI-7 and MI-8 — are now rated as toss-ups by Cook Political Report, while a third seat — MI-10, where incumbent John James won by just 1,500 votes in 2022 — is a strong pickup opportunity for Democrats.

• Maintain Trifecta Control of the State Government. The 2022 election, where Democrats won control of the legislature and key statewide offices, ushered in a new era in Michigan and a flurry of progressive legislation. But this newfound power will vanish if Democrats can’t maintain or build on their slim margin in the House of Representatives this fall. 

How Donors Can Help Democrats Win in Michigan in 2024

Democratic success in Michigan’s election contests will require strong mobilization of key party constituencies, as well as effective persuasion work to reach voters who are undecided, don’t strongly align with either party, or simply don’t believe that voting will make any difference in their lives. By supporting groups focused on voter engagement, donors can help win races up and down the ballot, while also building long-term progressive power in the state. Donors should consider supporting the following:

• Michigan United Action is the largest community organizing group in the state. It has a strong record of fieldwork across the state, including the three competitive congressional districts. It uses data-driven strategies that include canvassing, relational organizing, phone banking and digital outreach. In 2022, MPC reached out to more than 1.5 million voters, knocked over 200,000 doors and helped usher in the first Democratic trifecta in Michigan in over 40 years.  

National Groups Working in Michigan. A number of leading national voter groups for 2024 are working in Michigan and deserve consideration from donors. These include (with donation links):

• Working America engages in year-round grassroots organizing to engage working-class voters in Michigan and other battleground states. It is widely respected for its evidence-based voter mobilization work. 

• Galvanize Action is laser-focused on winning the votes of white women in its four target states, which include Michigan where these voters made up 43% of the electorate in 2020. 

• Rural Democracy Initiative supports organizing groups in rural areas of Michigan and other battleground states. It’s essential that Democrats connect effectively in 2024 with Michigan’s rural voters, who make up nearly a third of the state’s electorate.