How to Help Democrats Win in Arizona: Donor Recommendations
Arizona will be one of the most closely contested states in the 2024 election and the outcomes here could decide who controls the White House, the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House. The state’s legislature is also up for grabs; Democrats need to flip just a few seats in both chambers to secure trifecta control of Arizona’s government. Finally, Arizonans may be voting for a ballot measure that would ensure access to abortion.
Election margins have been extremely tight in Arizona in recent years. Then-candidate Joe Biden won the state by just 10,457 votes in 2020. In 2022, Gov. Katie Hobbs won her race by 17,717 votes, and Attorney General Kris Mayes won by 280 votes.
These razor-thin margins suggest that voter turnout will again be a deciding factor in Arizona election outcomes in 2024. Yet while many individual candidates running in the state are likely to be well financed, resources are far less plentiful for voter engagement and get-out-the-vote work that benefit all Democratic candidates up and down the ballot. Supporting such efforts — especially work focused on young people and Latino voters — is the best way for donors to have an impact in this crucial state.
Below, we explain what’s at stake in Arizona this election and where to give to support voter engagement work that helps Democrats win.
Democratic 2024 Election Goals in Arizona
While Arizona has been trending Democratic in recent election cycles, it remains the quintessential purple state. Just over a third of voters are registered Republicans, 29% are Democrats, and 34% are independent. Democrats have four goals in Arizona this year:
Win Arizona’s 11 electoral votes. The success of Biden’s reelection bid could boil down to Arizona, where the president needs to sustain recent Democratic gains here among white college graduates and replicate his large margins of victory in 2020 among Latino and young voters, two groups that turned out at record levels that year.
Hold a Senate seat. For Democrats to have any chance of holding the U.S. Senate this year, Ruben Gallego must win his race against Kari Lake.
Flip two House seats. Democrats can win the U.S. House this year by gaining just a handful of seats. Two of their best bets are in Arizona: CD 1, held by Republican David Schweikert, and CD 6, held by Juan Ciscomani. Both are among the most vulnerable members of the House.
Flip the State Legislature. Republicans control the Arizona State Senate by three seats and the House by just two seats. If Democrats can flip both houses in 2024, they’ll have trifecta control of Arizona’s government.
Protect Abortion Rights. A major effort is underway to secure enough signatures to get a statewide measure on the ballot this year to protect abortion rights. If that campaign succeeds, it will further heighten the stakes of Arizona’s 2024 election cycle.
How Donors Can Help Democrats Win in Arizona in 2024
Democratic success in Arizona’s election contests will require strong mobilization of key Democratic constituencies, as well as effective persuasion work. By supporting engagement efforts and get-out-the-vote activities, donors can help win races up and down the ballot while also building long-term progressive power in the state. Donors should consider supporting the following group:
Living United for Change in Arizona (LUCHA). Along with its 501(c)(3) arm, the Arizona Center of Empowerment (ACE), LUCHA is a membership-based organization that is widely recognized as a powerful electoral force in the state. It runs a major voter engagement program, knocking on over 800,000 doors in 2020 and 500,000 in 2022, with a major focus on Latinos. This year, it’s working to knock on 1 million doors — in a state with just over 4 million registered voters. LUCHA’s field program relies on experienced canvassers who’ve worked across multiple election cycles and are deeply familiar with the communities in which they’re doing outreach.
Conclusion
Arizona is at a tipping point. Democrats now control the governorship and other key statewide offices, as well as one U.S. Senate seat. These gains were made possible in large part by sustained grassroots organizing, starting over a decade ago. This year, donors can help further fuel this trend and also help to hold the White House and Senate, as well as flip the House. There are few better opportunities for donor impact in 2024 than investing in Arizona.