Val Demings is a rising star in Democratic Party politics, but it’s difficult to see where, exactly, she’s rising to. Demmings was the first Black woman to serve as chief of the Orlando Police Department, and though her time there was marked by scandals and Demings has at times made clumsy defenses of her officers, being a former cop is surely an asset at a time when Republicans are hankering to make crime an issue. She was elected to Congress in 2016 after the state supreme court found that Florida’s congressional maps were unconstitutionally gerrymandered and has remained in that safely Democratic seat since. Speaker Nancy Pelosi named her one of the impeachment managers during President Donald Trump’s Senate trial, and Joe Biden was reportedly considering her for vice president, signs of her growing stature within the party.
Though the Democratic primary for Florida’s Senate seat is still technically underway, Demings has cleared the field in part because of the massive amount of money she’s been able to raise; this, too, speaks to how influential she is. Still, Blue Tent views giving to Demings as a low priority at this time.
Below, we explore three key questions that small and medium donors should answer before supporting candidates. (See how we evaluate candidates.)
Is This Race Important?
Honestly, at this point, Democrats winning a statewide election in Florida would be an enormous achievement, not just for the additional Senate seat, but as a sign that they are competitive in a state that was once evenly split, which now seems to be trending Republican, with Florida Democrats unable to find countermeasures. (See Blue Tent's recent strategy brief on how to turn things around: Building Progressive Power and Winning Elections in Florida: Options for Donors.)
Can Demings Win?
Maybe. Of all the Senate races that are thought of as “in play,” this is probably the least competitive. FiveThirtyEight gives the state a nearly eight-point Republican lean, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates the race a “likely Republican;” the Cook Political Report is a bit more bullish on Democrats here, calling it a “lean Republican.” Some recent history is useful for context: In 2016, Marco Rubio got 200,000 more Floridian votes than Trump, who carried the state by a single point. In 2018, the year of the blue wave, Andrew Gillum fell just short of beating Gov. Ron DeSantis in the gubernatorial race. In 2020, Trump improved on his 2016 performance, beating Biden by four points. For Demings to win, she would have to reverse the post-2016 trend that has seen Republicans repeatedly defeat Democrats, even in cycles that are good for Democrats—and she would have to outperform Rubio’s last opponent, Patrick Murphy, by a substantial margin. That could theoretically happen, and it would be premature to say Rubio is definitely getting reelected, but her victory would be a miracle that would stun the political world.
Does She Need Money?
No, definitely not. While she’s a relative long shot, Demings has over $13 million in cash on hand, on par with Rubio. But Murphy outraised Rubio, and he lost soundly. The amount of money Demings has pulled in may have less to do with her viability as a candidate, and more to do with how much Democrats hate Rubio. But don’t be fooled: A donation to Demings is likely a donation to a candidate who will lose. However, we believe that donors should invest in building progressive organizing capacity in Florida, which remains within reach for Democrats. Donors can advance that crucial goal, and help Demings in this election cycle, by giving to key grassroots groups in the state. See our strategy brief on Florida for specific recommendations.