When Teresa Leger Fernandez won the Democratic primary for New Mexico’s 3rd Congressional District in 2020, it was a victory for the progressive wing of the party. Leger Fenandez had a long history of working as a lawyer who championed the state’s tribal communities, she supported the principles of the Green New Deal, and earned an endorsement from New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio Cortez. She cruised to an easy win in the general election that cycle, the 3rd being a longtime safe Democratic seat.
But that’s changed thanks to redistricting. New Mexico’s Democratic state legislature controlled the process, and they chose to make all three congressional seats more competitive. This means it’s possible Democrats defeat the New Mexican delegation’s sole Republican, Yvette Herrell, but it also puts the two Democrats at greater risk and reduces the percentage of Native American voters in the 3rd. Leger Fernandez was reportedly “shocked” by the map the legislature picked, which puts a lot of the state’s oil and gas industry in her district, a constituency she didn’t exactly ask for. It’s unclear who the Republican running against her will be, but this district may be competitive in a GOP wave year, and she hasn’t raised all that much money yet.
Blue Tent views giving to Fernandez’s candidacy as a low priority, after initially rating her a priority. Below, we explore three key questions that small and medium donors should answer before supporting candidates. (See how we evaluate candidates.)
Is This Race Important?
If New Mexico’s 3rd is competitive, it’s bad news for Democrats everywhere, as it means that they’ll likely lose a lot of districts that skewed more Democratic in the 2020 election. So it’s not as if a Fernandez victory will be decisive as to who controls the House. But a win here would mean that Democrats have one less seat they need to take back in the next cycle.
Can Fernandez Win?
The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate this election as “Likely Democratic,” while FiveThirtyEight has the new 3rd as having a 5-point lean in Democrats’ direction (under the old congressional map, the 3rd had a +14 Democratic lean). The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee doesn’t even have Fernandez listed as a “Frontline” member, which could indicate that the party isn’t concerned about her. On the other hand, she's a one-term incumbent who has never been in a competitive election against a Republican, and the 3rd is about 40 percent Hispanic, a demographic that has been turning increasingly toward the GOP. Her left-wing policy positions, which may have helped her win the 2020 primary, could be a liability now that her electorate is less Democratic.
Does She Need Money?
The good news is that Fernandez has outraised her opponent, Alexis Johnson, by a huge margin, $1.8 million to less than $100,000. That puts her in a commanding position, so we're rating her a low priority for donors.
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