Editor’s note: Rudy Salas lost his race by a margin of 3%. To see how other Blue Tent recommended candidates performed this cycle, read our full 2022 midterms rundown.
There aren’t many congressional races in 2022 where Democrats have an actual chance to unseat a Republican incumbent, but the redistricting scramble in California has given a few candidates a sliver of hope. Among them is State Rep. Rudy Salas, who has won competitive races in the Central Valley before, and who has a history of voting against tax increases. His background as a somewhat renegade Democrat could give him a chance to beat incumbent House Rep. David Valadao in California’s 22nd District.
Blue Tent views giving to Salas’s campaign as a priority. Below, we explore three key questions that small and medium donors should answer before supporting candidates. (See how we evaluate candidates.)
Is this race important?
Even with the Dobbs decision giving Democrats a chance to win some races that seemed hopeless earlier in 2022, it’s highly unlikely they’ll be able to retain their slim majority in the House. But if they can keep their losses to single digits, they’ll have an excellent shot at regaining a majority in 2024. In any case, winning the House will probably mean beating Valadao, a Republican who has been able to win elections even in a district that has been trending blue for years.
Can Salas win?
Redistricting has made the 22nd bluer, to the point that FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a 10-point edge in the district. That would make it a slam dunk, but Valadao has held this seat for a decade and has won close races before — in 2020 and 2018, he eked out victories by less than a percentage point. So he’s beatable, but also battle-tested and shouldn’t be underestimated.
Does Salas need money?
This is obviously a pickup target for Democrats, and House Majority PAC, the party’s main national campaign arm, has pumped in millions to this race, which has been matched by its Republican counterparts. But Salas has lagged Valadao in direct fundraising, $3.2 million to $2.2 million, as of the last campaign finance reporting deadline. In a cycle when most well-known Democrats have raked in huge sums, Salas is someone who could actually use the money, which is why we’re rating him a priority.