Editor’s note: Raphael Warnock advanced to a runoff election against Herschel Walker, which he won by a margin of 2.8%. To see how Blue Tent's recommended candidates performed this cycle, read our full 2022 midterms rundown.
Raphael Warnock’s victory in the 2021 runoff election over Kelly Loeffler was a historic moment. Warnock became the first Black senator to represent Georgia, and the first Black Democrat to win election in a former Confederate state. And he did it not by moving to the center—as many red-state Democratic candidates have done—but by being fairly progressive on a range of issues from reproductive rights to concealed carry. He’s pretty much universally beloved by Democrats, and also fighting in one of the most difficult (but winnable) reelection races in the country. But donors looking to have an impact on the 2022 cycle should probably look elsewhere, because Warnock is going to have a lot of money.
Below, we explore three key questions that small and medium donors should answer before supporting candidates. (See how we evaluate candidates.)
Is This Race Important?
Mathematically, no Senate seat is more important than any other—that is, a vote is a vote. But hanging on to this one feels important, both because of who Warnock is and because securing it was such a watershed moment in American politics. Keeping Georgia blue in Senate and presidential elections is a major goal for Democrats going forward. This is the most important election of the cycle.
Can Warnock Win?
The 2020 election results, where both Warnock and Jon Ossoff won Senate seats while Joe Biden had a narrow margin of victory, indicate that Georgia is in play. Of the two Democrats who won in last year’s runoffs, Warnock had the larger margin of victory—but it was only 2 points. FiveThirtyEight’s composite rankings show Georgia has a seven-point Republican lean, and Cook’s Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate the race as a toss-up. It’s going to be close, in other words. It’s worth pointing out that even if this is a down year for Democrats, Warnock is an unusually good candidate, and if the GOP nominates former football star Herschel Walker, they’ll have to contend with his history of domestic violence.
Does He Need Money?
Here’s the important thing for donors: Warnock is absolutely flush right now. As of the last campaign finance report, he had raised $86 million compared to challenger Hershel Walker's $33 million. His reelection will be expensive, but there’s no indication that he’s going to be unable to afford anything. There are lots of more efficient places to spend as a donor. That’s why Blue Tent believes donors should consider Warnock a low priority.
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