Editor’s note: Padma Kuppa lost her race by a margin of 785 votes; through our readers, Blue Tent raised $19,793 for Kuppa. To see how other Blue Tent recommended candidates performed this cycle, read our full 2022 midterms rundown.
In 2018, Padma Kuppa ran for office for the first time. An Indian-born former Chrystler engineer, she seemed well-suited to represent Michigan House District 41, which included the city of Troy. Kuppa had served on the city planning commission, been president of the Troy Historical Society, and was a founding member of the Troy-area Interfaith Group. These deep roots in the district, which has a substantial immigrant population, helped her eke out a close victory in 2018, and she won reelection by a larger margin in 2020. This cycle she’s looking to move up to the state senate, running in the new District 9, which doesn't have an incumbent and could be one of the most important state legislative elections in the country.
Is this election important?
Though Joe Biden won Michigan in 2020, Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature, albeit by small margins. Democrats are focused on retaking the state house and senate not just because a governing trifecta would allow them to pass policies into law, but because there’s a concern that the GOP in Michigan might try to use the state legislature to overturn legitimate election results in 2024. To prevent this, Democrats need to retake at least one of the chambers here, and the new Senate map, observers agree, could give them a shot. According to the Detroit Free Press, there are 19 safely Democratic districts and 16 safely Republican districts, two toss-up districts and one Republican-leaning district, which is the one where Kuppa is running.
But in a year where the overall political environment will surely favor Republicans, it would be a mistake to conclude that Democrats can easily retake the senate. Winning the race in District 9, though, would go a long way to ensuring the Democrats win control of the chamber — if Kuppa won, Democrats could lose both toss-up seats and still get a majority.
Below, we explore three key questions about Padma Kuppa’s candidacy that small and medium donors should answer before supporting campaigns. (See how we evaluate candidates.)
Can Kuppa win?
She’s a known quantity in the district thanks to her two terms in the house, and she has deep roots in the area as well. Kuppa is exactly the kind of candidate you want to run in these sorts of races, and candidate quality can make a big difference at this level of politics. Her opponent, Michael Webber, is also a state house member, and this will be a very competitive race.
Does she need money?
She's built a solid lead in terms of fundraising, and has a fairly major cash-on-hand lead, $360,000 to $70,000, as of mid-August. This doesn't mean she doesn't need any more money, full stop, but it's not an all-hands-on-deck, red-lights-flashing emergency.
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Supporting Kuppa’s campaign should be a priority for donors given the likelihood of a close race and the potential for the Michigan state legislature to influence the 2024 election. But her financial situation is solid, so she's not a top-tier in-need candidate.