Editor’s note: Melissa Cerrato won her race by a margin of 58 votes. To see how other Blue Tent recommended candidates performed this cycle, read our full 2022 midterms rundown.
There are a lot of candidates running for the state House in Pennsylvania. The legislature’s lower chamber has just over 200 seats, meaning there are dozens of competitive races in an enormously pivotal midterm cycle. But among all the worthy Democratic candidates, Melissa Cerrato stands out. She worked for Rep. Liz Hanbidge, so she has some experience in politics, but her campaign is emphasizing her deep roots in the Philadelphia suburbs and her status as a relative outsider (she’s challenging Republican incumbent Todd Stephens). She’s been endorsed by the DLCC, Sister District and the States Project, and if Democrats take back the Pennsylvania House (a tough task), it’ll be thanks to candidates like her.
Blue Tent views rates giving to Cerrato's campaign as a high priority. Below, we explore three key questions that small and medium donors should answer before supporting candidates. (See how we evaluate candidates.)
Is This Race Important?
Republicans control both chambers of Pennsylvania’s state legislature, and winning the Senate here is probably out of reach. But flipping the House would help block the GOP from trying to award Pennsylvania’s presidential electors to the Republican challenging Joe Biden in 2024, and in the event of a Republican governor taking over, control of the House might let Democrats block GOP efforts to criminalize abortion. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates the Pennsylvania House as “likely Republican,” so this won’t be easy, but if Democrats do win, they’ll need Cerrato to beat Stephens. He has beaten Democrats in the last two cycles, but the margins were within five points each time so he’s not invulnerable.
Can Cerrato Win?
Inflation, high gas prices and President Joe Biden’s low approval ratings make this a tough cycle for Democrats overall. But Democratic voters in Pennsylvania could be fired up by John Fetterman’s Senate campaign and the Republican threat to abortion rights, an issue that might resonate in Cerrato’s suburban 151st District. It’s tough to beat incumbents, and she might lose, but it’s one of those races where Democrats have to take a shot.
Does She Need Money?
Unfortunately, Stephens has outraised Cerrato so far, with his committee bringing in nearly $110,000 in 2022 as of the latest campaign finance report, and Cerrato’s raising $63,000. As she’s facing an uphill battle, it’s especially important for her to raise money. She’s a good candidate who could use a boost and who has an impressive slate of endorsements—exactly who you should be giving to this cycle.
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