Arizona appears destined to slowly transition from a Republican stronghold into a solidly blue state in the mold of New Mexico or Colorado, but Democrats are still far from seizing the levers of power in the Grand Canyon State. This year’s midterms could be a tipping point, with open statewide races and a potentially energized Democratic electorate. One of the most important offices up for grabs — in both Arizona and other key swing states — is the state’s attorney general. Democrat Kris Mayes is looking to replace Republican Mark Brnovich, who left his office in pursuit of an unsuccessful senate run. Supporting Mayes’s campaign should be seen as a high priority for donors, as her election could protect access to abortion in Arizona, while beating back attacks on American democracy.
Is this election important?
Yes. Arizona is one of several key states where the difference between electing a Democrat or a Republican for attorney general alone could decide the fate of the 2024 presidential election and beyond. After a crowded primary, Trump-endorsed Abe Hamadeh emerged victorious, setting the stage for a highly polarized general election. Like most of his Republican opponents, Hamadeh has refused to acknowledge Joe Biden’s victory in Arizona in 2020, saying he would not have certified the election’s results, as outgoing Republican Attorney General Mark Brnovich did.
Arizona will also be a legal battleground over abortion rights, as the state has both a pre-statehood ban on most abortions, as well as a 15-week abortion ban that the state legislature passed earlier this year. Hamadeh has said that he believes both laws should be enforced, including the prosecution of doctors who provide abortions (Arizona law exempts women who recieve abortions from prosecution). However, Arizona’s state constitution also contains an explicit right to privacy, which Mayes believes protects abortion rights. Mayes has said that if elected attorney general, she would refuse to enforce the stringent abortion bans, interpreting them as unconstitutional.
Can Mayes win?
Yes. Arizona has been trending blue, as seen in 2020 when Democrats took control of both of the state’s senate seats while also winning the state’s electoral college votes. Mark Kelly, the Democratic senator elected in a special election in 2020, is running for reelection and polling ahead of his Republican opponent, Blake Masters. Kelly’s race obviously cannot be compared 1:1 with Mayes’s, but strong statewide performance at any level for Democrats will likely translate into other statewide races. Likewise, both Kelly and Mayes are facing Trump-backed, outsider candidates running on relatively fringe positions. Midterms are typically favorable to the party outside of the White House, which may give Republicans a slight boost, but Democratic voters are also highly motivated to show up this November thanks to the Supreme Court’s recent decision overturning Roe v. Wade. Of statewide races in Arizona this year, attorney general is likely the most directly consequential for voters concerned about abortion, which should work heavily in Mayes’s favor.
Does she need money?
Yes. As of August, Mayes has raised just under $600,000, having spent about a third of that money. By comparison, Republican attorney general candidate Dawn Grove, who came in a distant fourth in this month’s GOP primary, raised more than $960,000. Mayes’s opponent in November, Hamadeh, has already spent more than $1.8 million. Mayes will undoubtedly be assisted by Sen. Mark Kelly’s massive, $52 million campaign warchest, but Kelly may also face a blitz of Republican money — his opponent, Masters, is both a Trump favorite and an acolyte of billionaire Peter Thiel. If Kelly and some of the many effective organizing groups are able to turnout Democratic voters at a strong clip, Mayes should be fine. However, given Arizona’s status as a still quite purple state, Mayes will need money for an effective campaign to make sure voters don’t split their tickets.
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Arizona will undoubtedly continue to be the site of vital battles for America’s political future, and expanding Democratic and progressive power in the state in any form will be an important factor in who wins those battles. This is a race that has serious stakes for both the future — 2024 and beyond — and the present, namely legal access to abortion. Electing Kris Mayes as Arizona’s next attorney general would be a major part of defending Democratic territory and protecting American democracy, which is why her campaign should be considered a high priority for progressive donors.