John Fetterman is the Democrats’ breakout star of the 2022 cycle. The Senate nominee in Pennsylvania, he is the type of candidate progressives imagine can appeal to the infamous Obama-Trump voter — he’s in favor of Medicare for All and weed legalization, he wears long basketball shorts rather than suits, doesn’t act like a politician (though he was a mayor for a decade and is currently Pennsylvania’s lieutenant governor), and seems authentic, to trot out an overused descriptor. He easily beat Conor Lamb, the central-casting moderate who racked up endorsements from the party establishment, and he has promised to campaign in all parts of the state, including red counties. But he’s not a dyed-in-the-wool progressive, and has broken from the left on issues like fracking (which he sees as a way to create jobs) and Israel (of which he is a staunch supporter, a stance that may have kept the Israel lobby from attacking him). The question is whether he’ll be able to overcome headwinds in a bad political cycle for Democrats.
Should small and medium donors give to Fetterman’s campaign? Below, we explore three key questions that donors should answer before supporting candidates. (See how we evaluate candidates.)
Is this race important?
The Pennsylvania Senate race is one of the key battles of this cycle, and could decide control of the Senate. It’s on the shortlist, along with Florida, Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin, of most contested Senate races.
Can Fetterman win?
The good news is that the Mehmet Oz, his opponent, seems to be running a particularly bad campaign and is trailing in the polls—a race that was once universally regarded as a toss-up has been rated "leans Democratic" by the Cook Political Report. It's possible to be overconfident, but Fetterman looks like the favorite.
Does he need money?
This is going to be a very expensive race—the last time this seat was contested, in 2016, it was the second most expensive race in the cycle, with candidates spending $52 million here, and the eventual winner, Republican incumbent Pat Toomey, spending $30 million.
But one of Fetterman’s strengths is fundraising. His policy stances aside, the fact that he’s a socially awkward dude who goes around in basketball shorts even while meeting the president in winter has made him a walking viral phenomenon, and he’s raised a lot of money from progressives all over the country. He's outraised Oz $47 million to $33 million—and 60 percent of Oz's money coming out of his own pockets.
Like several other Democrats running for Senate this cycle, Fetterman is a great candidate fighting in a key election—but doesn’t need money. For this reason, we rate him a low priority at this time.
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