Editor’s note: Jamie McLeod-Skinner lost her race by a margin of 2%; through our readers, Blue Tent raised $18,052 for McLeod-Skinner. To see how other Blue Tent recommended candidates performed this cycle, read our full 2022 midterms rundown.
When Jamie McLeod-Skinner won her insurgent campaign against Oregon Rep. Kurt Schrader, it was a victory for the left. McLeod-Skinner is an avowedly progressive lesbian rancher, and she was challenging the Blue Dog incumbent for his votes against Democratic priorities and his referring to the second impeachment of President Donald Trump as a “lynching.” Well, make that half a victory — McLeod-Skinner now has to run a general election campaign in what should be a competitive district against a Republican. And while Schrader’s hardcore centrism and affinity for big pharma was clearly out of step with Democrats in the new 5th District, his supporters (including the Oregonian editorial board) have argued that as a moderate, he would have a better chance of appealing to voters in a general election.
Blue Tent views giving to McLeod-Skinner's campaign as a low priority. Below, we explore three key questions that small and medium donors should answer before supporting candidates. (See how we evaluate candidates.)
Is this race important?
It’s becoming increasingly clear that Democrats are unlikely to retain control of the House — a May court ruling that struck down the Democrat-friendly map in New York makes it all the more improbable. So the race in Oregon’s 5th District probably won’t decide the House majority. Still, every House seat matters, and retaining Schrader’s seat will make it easier for Democrats to retake the chamber in future years.
But this could also be an important test case in an ongoing debate about whether progressives like McLeod-Skinner can appeal to swing voters, particularly in rural areas. MacLeod-Skinner is an attorney whose campaign has emphasized her blue-collar roots, and she’s spoken about how progressives need to change their language based on who they’re appealing to. Her victory would show that as long as you have a good candidate who matches the district, you don’t need to be afraid of embracing progressive policies. But her loss would give ammunition to centrists who say that Democrats need to avoid veering left in order to win swing voters.
Can she win?
The new 5th District is significantly different from the old district, as it stretches more into central Oregon and includes a major portion of Deschutes County, which has traditionally voted Republican, though it backed Joe Biden in 2020. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate the 5th District as “lean Democrat,” which bodes well for McLeod-Skinner, though it’s also going to be the state’s most competitive district. Her Republican opponent, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, is going to be a tough opponent in what should be a competitive and hard-to-predict race.
Does she need money?
McLeod-Skinner has pulled ahead in fundraising, with $2.6 million raised compared to Chavez-DeRemer's $1.9 million. But the major Republican congressional PAC has pumped in more than $4.3 million into this race, so McLeod-Skinner still needs money to compete in what should be a very close race. Blue Tent is rating her campaign a high priority.
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