Editor’s note: Frank Mrvan won his race by a margin of 6%. To see how other Blue Tent recommended candidates performed this cycle, read our full 2022 midterms rundown.
Frank Mrvan cruised to an easy election in Indiana’s 1st District in 2020, probably helped along by the clout of his father (also named Frank Mrvan), who was a force in the State Senate for decades. But 2022 is a different animal. The 1st District is one of those working-class areas that has become steadily less Democratic with time, and it’s a juicy pickup opportunity for Republicans.
Blue Tent views giving to Mrvan's campaign as a high priority. Below, we explore three key questions that small and medium donors should answer before supporting candidates. (See how we evaluate candidates.)
Is this election important?
Even if Democrats don’t retain their House majority, preserving seats so they can win the House back in 2024 is important. This race is as vital as any other House race, though it’s not particularly high-profile.
Can Mrvan win?
A Democratic incumbent in a Democratic district should win, but this summer, Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the rating from “leans Democratic” to “toss-up,” writing, “Democrats have been losing ground in these kinds of [post-industrial] districts in recent years.” So while Mrvan can certainly win, he’s vulnerable. A poll from May showed him with a solid lead, but still under 50% support.
Does he need money?
Yes. Mrvan's Republican challenger, Air Force veteran Jennifer-Ruth Green, has outraised him in the last quarter. That’s not great news — Mrvan, as the incumbent, should be outstripping her. As a one-term incumbent, Mrvan is vulnerable, and Democrats should work hard to defend his seat. We rate him a high priority for donors.