Editor’s note: Dana Nessel won her race by a margin of 8.6%. To see how Blue Tent's recommended candidates performed this cycle, read our full 2022 midterms rundown.
Like many progressive incumbents, Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel was elected in the blue wave of 2018, becoming the first Democratic AG of Michigan since 2002. Democrats in the Great Lakes State also won the governorship and secretary of state’s office, giving the party three vital statewide offices to defend in this year’s midterms. As we discussed in our candidate recommendation for Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, because of Republican attempts at election subversion in 2020 and Michigan’s status as a likely swing state in 2024, retaining these state-level offices must be a top priority for the 2022 midterms.
Nessel’s Republican opponent in the fall is Matthew Deperno, a Trump-endorsed tax lawyer who made a name for himself in 2020 by filing suits to challenge the presidential election results in Michigan, alleging widespread voter fraud. Leonard has also voiced his support for a “forensic audit” of the 2020 elections, citing allegations of fraud.
Blue Tent has previously recommended donors give to Nessel, but she has had such a huge amount of fundraising success that we are downgrading her to a low priority.
Below, we explore three key questions that small and medium donors should answer before supporting candidates. (See how we evaluate candidates.)
Is This election Important?
Yes. Michigan is a battleground state, and Nessel’s possible opponents favor continuing investigations into baseless voter fraud claims from 2020, and pose an outright threat to free and fair elections in the state in 2024. Attorney general races, once an afterthought, are now recognized as vitally important.
Can Nessel Win?
Yes. While Michigan famously turned red for Trump in 2016, the state elected Democrats to all three executive offices in 2018 and Joe Biden won the state in 2020. But 2022 promises to be a tough year for Democrats everywhere, and while polling from early January found that Nessel led of her potential opponents, more than 20% of voters still identified as undecided. Thanks to increased partisanship and the decline of ticket splitting, the outcomes of the races for both the attorney general and secretary of state in Michigan will likely track closely with the results of the gubernatorial election. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has polled above her likely Republican opponents, but it may be too early to draw any strong conclusions.
Another important factor working in favor of Nessel and her Democratic colleagues is incumbency. The last time that an incumbent governor, secretary of state, or attorney general from either party lost an election in Michigan was in 1994. The reason why is not entirely clear, but may have something to do with the state’s late gubernatorial primary, which takes place in August and gives non-incumbent candidates only a few months to fundraise and campaign with the gubernatorial nominee.
Does She Need Money?
Nessel had raised $3.7 million as of August, giving her a substantial edge over DePerno, who had raised under $800,000 and had one-twentieth of what she had in terms of cash on hand. She decidedly does not need money.
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This will be a challenging year for many Democratic incumbents, making Nessel vulnerable as she works to keep a critical state office in Democratic hands. The Michigan attorney general could play a decisive role in the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. But if she loses, it won't be for lack of funds. This is an important race, but given her cash advantage we rate her a low priority for donors.