Editor’s note: Christy Smith lost her race by a margin of 6.4%. To see how other Blue Tent recommended candidates performed this cycle, read our full 2022 midterms rundown.
In 2020, California State Rep. Christy Smith ran a tough campaign in California’s 25th Congressional District, coming within 350 votes of beating incumbent House Rep. Mike Garica. Two years later, Smith is going for a rematch against Garcia, who now represents the new 27th District, which occupies much of the same northern Los Angeles County territory as the old 25th. It’s one of a handful of winnable-on-paper congressional races in California that could help swing control of the House in two years’ time, though Smith hasn’t received the attention of some of her fellow Democrats.
Blue Tent views giving to Smith’s campaign as a priority for donors in the final stretch. Below, we explore three key questions that small and medium donors should answer before supporting candidates. (See how we evaluate candidates.)
Is this election important?
It’s likely that Democrats will lose the House no matter what happens in this race. Winning elections at this level in 2022 is mostly about minimizing the margin of defeat and looking ahead to 2024 — if Democrats can keep losses to a minimum, then they can recover the House two years from now. So House races aren’t Democrats’ top priority this cycle, but they still matter.
Can Smith win?
Smith nearly beat Garcia in 2020, but it’s difficult to tell whether this cycle provides a better opportunity for her. Midterms should be a chance for the opposition party to pick up a lot of seats, particularly when people are worried about inflation and high gas prices. But on the other hand, the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision has energized Democrats and put Republicans on the defensive. Garcia knows his district well, but he’s not entirely running as a moderate; in August, he compared the Biden administration to Nazis. There’s an opportunity for a pickup here (at least the DCCC thinks so), but it would still be a mild surprise if Smith won, given her previous loss.
Does she need money?
But Smith almost certainly won’t win if she can’t raise more money. As of the end of June, she had raised only $3 million to Garcia’s $6 million. (An expensive TV market means that this race requires a lot of money.) If she loses because of this deficit, it won’t be an utter disaster for the Democrats — this election likely won’t decide control of the House, and in any case, they’ll have a chance to compete in this district again in 2024. Still, given how much money is being spent on candidates this cycle, more of it should flow Smith’s way. She’s a priority for donors.