Editor’s note: Adam Gray lost his race by a margin of 564 votes; through our readers, Blue Tent raised $25,342 for Gray. To see how other Blue Tent recommended candidates performed this cycle, read our full 2022 midterms rundown.
California’s redistricting process has scrambled the number of districts. The 13th Congressional District used to be in the East Bay, a solidly Democratic seat held by longtime incumbent Barbara Lee. That patch of land is now the 12th District and the new 13th District is a majority Latino district in the Central Valley. Representative Josh Harder was initially planning to run here, but then Representative Jerry McNerney announced he was retiring rather than seeking reelection in his Stockton-area 9th District, which borders the new 13th. So Harder is running in the bluer 9th while the 13th is wide open. The two candidates to emerge from the blanket primary were Democratic State Assemblymember Adam Gray and Republican farmer/business owner John Duarte.
Blue Tent views giving to Gray's campaign as a high priority. Below, we explore three key questions that small and medium donors should answer before supporting candidates. (See how we evaluate candidates.)
Is this race important?
Democrats will probably lose the House this cycle, but holding onto as many seats as they can is still important as it means it will be easier to retake the chamber in future years. Given the district’s rural and Latino character, the 13th could also be a test for how Democrats can appeal to voters they have sometimes struggled to connect with.
Can Gray win?
Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report rate this race as “leans Democratic,” but this district has the makings of a tough race. The Central Valley is an agricultural area and local issues are important, namely water rights. Gray is a moderate who has clashed with Democratic leadership in the state over a quote-unquote “water grab” policy that would have devoted water to conservation and fishing projects that farmers say are less important than their businesses. So he is a good fit for the district, but if voters are blaming Democrats for inflation and high gas prices, he could be in trouble. Notably, Duarte got more votes in the primary than Gray did.
Does he need money?
The top fundraiser in this district was actually Phil Arballo, a Democrat who ran in the primary after unsuccessfully trying to unseat Rep. Devin Nunes in 2020. Arballo spent $1.2 million on the primary but only got 17% of the vote, which speaks to Gray’s relative ability as a campaigner. (Gray got 30%, while Duarte got 34%.) As of the latest FEC reports, Duarte and Gray had each raised $1.7 million, indicating that Gray has closed a fundraising gap in the last quarter. We rate this race as a priority for donors.