When Aaron Ford was elected attorney general of Nevada in 2018, he was one of several statewide Democrats to flip his office, but none did so on tighter margins. That November, Ford defeated Republican Wesley Duncan by fewer than 5,000 votes, giving Nevada Democrats control of all but one major statewide office. Those 2018 victories, however, have not exactly proven to be reasons for progressive optimism in Nevada, a state that Biden won in 2020 by just 2.4 points. Going into this year’s midterms, Republicans are eyeing Nevada as a top priority, with a chance to flip major state-level offices like governor and attorney general, as well as a crucial senate seat. Like other swing states, Nevada has also seen a barrage of unfounded voter fraud accusations and demands for stronger scrutiny of Biden’s victory. If Republicans take control of the state attorney general’s office, they could wreak havoc on Nevada’s elections, including the 2024 presidential race.
Fortunately, Ford has built a massive war chest over the past year, and while he still may lose, it won't be for lack of funds. Blue Tent rates his candidacy a low priority for donors due to his edge in fundraising thus far.
Below, we explore three key questions that small and medium donors should answer before supporting candidates. (See how we evaluate candidates.)
Is This Election Important?
Yes. Like in other key states, Nevada’s attorney general could play a major role in future elections that have national implications. Nevada has been one of a handful of states targeted by Republicans throughout the country with dubious claims of voter fraud and electoral malfeasance. Keeping a Democrat in office could help to check many of the attacks on the state’s democratic process, while also keeping the state out of future lawsuits filed by Republican attorneys general challenging election results.
For Democrats focused on the national level, Nevada in fact may be slipping as a top priority, and not for wholly irrational reasons. In 2018, Democrats convincingly defeated an incumbent Republican senator and won the governorship for the first time in two decades. But fewer than half of Nevada voters cast their ballot for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and 2020 Democratic margins in the Battle Born State were far below their peaks in 2008 and 2012. Nevada’s population is also highly transient, making public opinion especially difficult to measure, while Republicans have been working to make inroads with Latino voters, who are a core part of the Democratic base in the state. The most recent polling in Nevada has also indicated trouble for Democrats, with former President Donald Trump polling 10 points above Biden, 44% to 34%. In short, Nevada could easily be up for grabs in 2024, and having a Republican in the AG’s office could swing the election.
Can Ford Win?
Yes. Democratic presidential candidates have won Nevada going back to 2008, and all but one of Nevada’s major statewide offices are currently held by Democrats. That being said, Ford won his race by a very slim margin in 2018, and Republicans are targeting the state’s senate and gubernatorial races in 2022. Both Gov. Steve Sisolak and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto are facing serious challenges, with polls from the last six months often showing hypothetical Republican rivals in the lead.
Ford’s opponent, Sigal Chattah, made a name for herself suing the state over COVID restrictions, and has campaigned on forming a coalition of state AGs to “sue Biden into submission” over taxes, inflation, and critical race theory. During the GOP primary, a Las Vegas political blogger leaked controversial texts from Chattah, wherein the candidate compared Ford to the leaders of Hamas and said he “should be hanging from a (expletive) crane.” Chattah has also attacked Black as a “progressive plant” who has donated money to “Nevada’s most radical Democrats.” These leaks and attacks could obviously benefit Ford, but also show the potential for disaster were Republicans to win in the fall.
Does He Need Money?
As of July, Ford had $2.3 million in cash on hand, while Chattah had just under $70,000, a testament to Ford's massive fundraising advantage. Though Nevada will undoubtedly see a huge influx of cash from Democrats and Republicans in several key races, Ford looks like he will have a major money advantage over his rival. So while this is a high-stakes election, we're rating this a low priority for donors.
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