Jevin Hodge, House candidate in Arizona. Photo by Gage Skidmore
For the most part, Democratic candidates for Congress are raising more money than ever. That means some of these candidates will actually raise more money than they can put to good use. Most candidates in competitive races will raise enough at least to campaign effectively, even without your help. So with November 8 fast approaching, where should you send your final contributions for this cycle to help Democrats hold Congress?
As I argued on Blue Tent back in March and April, I think the focus, even for the most optimistic donors, should be on states and districts that Biden won in 2020. This is because more and more voters are inclined to support their president’s party in other federal races, regardless of the merits or demerits of the particular candidates or issues in those races. For instance, the correlation between voting in Senate and presidential races rose from 71% in 2008 to 80% in 2012 to 93% in 2016 to 95% in 2020.
Given that one of the most consistent patterns in American politics has been that the president’s party loses ground in midterm elections, it would be a huge victory for congressional Democrats if they can match Biden’s 2020 performance. If they can do so, they will win 52 senate seats (making Sinema and Manchin much less relevant) and keep control of the House. (Taking into account redistricting, there are now 226 congressional districts in which Biden got more votes than Trump.)
I still think Biden’s 2020 performance is the upper bound for what is realistically possible for Democrats in 2022. While the generic congressional ballot has recently been moving in the Democratic direction, it is still not where it was in 2018 or 2020.
From a fundraising perspective, the good news is that Democrats are on track to raise enough money to have a meaningful chance to win 52 U.S. Senate seats, even if you don’t contribute any further to these races. Looking at the most recent FEC data, incumbent Senators Maggie Hassan, Catherine Cortez Masto, Mark Kelly and Raphael Warnock have already shown they can raise as much money as they need. John Fetterman and Mandela Barnes, now that they have won their nominations, should be able to tap into national networks and big donors to do the same. If any of these candidates lose, it probably won’t be because of lack of money. (If you are determined to contribute to a U.S. Senate race, I would suggest Barnes, who doesn’t yet have Fetterman’s national network of small donors.)
It’s much the same with respect to Democratic members of the House who are running in competitive re-election races. Only two of those incumbents — Frank Mrvan (Indiana) and Marcy Kaptur (Ohio) — had less than $2 million cash on hand as of their latest FEC filing.
Taking into account the new lines, Kaptur’s district went for Trump by nearly 3 points in 2020, but perhaps her well-established local brand will enable her to eke out a victory. She is currently the longest-serving woman in either house of Congress, and the second longest-serving woman of all time, behind Barbara Mikulski.
But there are 11 non-incumbent House candidates in swing districts who still need to raise more money, in most cases because they only recently emerged from competitive primaries. Only one of the candidates below had more than $1 million cash on hand as of their most recent FEC filing (Mahmood with $1.2 million). Keep in mind that in most of these cases, the most recent FEC filings are now more than two months old, from June 30. So Blue Tent and others may well have a different take on the financial needs of some of these candidates after the next filing deadline at the end of this month.
- Jevin Hodge (Arizona): A 27-year-old who runs one of Arizona’s oldest Head Start programs has an uphill battle against incumbent Republican David Schweikert. But the new district lines give him a shot — Biden won there by 1.5%. If elected, Hodge would be the state’s first Black congressman and the second youngest Black congressman in American history, after Harold Ford Jr., who took office in 1997 at 26 years old.
- Kirsten Engel (Arizona): Arizona state legislator running for an open seat. Her day job is as an environmental lawyer and her husband is a climate scientist. The new district went for Biden in '20 but only by 0.1%. I think she can win as a woman running in an urban/suburban district in a cycle where abortion rights are a live issue (Arizona is traditionally a pro-choice state — even Barry Goldwater was pro-choice).
- Asif Mahmood (California): A pulmonologist who serves on the California Medical Board and on the board of the Valley Rescue Mission, the largest homeless shelter in Southern California. He faces a tough opponent in Rep. Young Kim, but Kim won’t have some of the usual benefits of incumbency because she is running in what is mostly a new district for her. (The new district went +1.9 for Biden in 2020.)
- Yadira Caraveo (Colorado): A pediatrician and state legislator running for an open seat in the Denver suburbs. Biden won the district by 4.7%. (For more about this race, see the Blue Tent endorsement.)
- Tony Vargas (Nebraska): A former public school teacher and the only Latino member of Nebraska’s state legislature, the 35-year-old Vargas would become the state’s first Latino congressional representative if he won the seat. He is running against formidable incumbent Don Bacon, but the new district went +6.4 for Biden in 2020.
- Gabe Vasquez (New Mexico): A member of the Las Cruces City Council who immigrated to the United States as a child. Vasquez is running against Rep. Yvette Herrell, who was elected for the first time in 2020. With the new lines, the district is now Biden +5.7.
- Josh Riley (New York): A former U.S. Senate lawyer who worked to restore the Voting Rights Act after it was gutted by the Supreme Court, Riley is running for an open seat in an upstate district where he and his family have longtime roots. The new district was Biden +4.7 in 2020.
- Greg Landsman (Ohio): A former public school teacher and member of the Cincinnati City Council, Landsman led a successful fight to substantially expand access to pre-K. He is running against longtime incumbent Steve Chabot in a district that is now far more favorable for Democrats — voters within the new lines went Biden +8.6 in 2020.
- Emilia Sykes (Ohio): Sykes is a state legislator who is running for an open seat (vacated by Tim Ryan) in a district that went for Biden +2.8 in 2020. For more information, see the Blue Tent endorsement.
- Ashley Ehasz (Pennsylvania): A U.S. Army combat veteran and Apache helicopter pilot prone to swearing like a dock worker, Ehasz is running against incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick. This suburban district (north of Philadelphia), with its new lines, went for Biden +4.7 in 2020, and the fight to restore abortion rights may help Ehasz to carry the day.
- Christopher Deluzio (Pennsylvania): A voting rights attorney and former Navy officer running for the open seat vacated by Connor Lamb, in a district that with its new lines went for Biden +6.0 in 2020. For more information, see the Blue Tent endorsement.
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Wally Reuther (a pseudonym) is a former campaign research director and press secretary who now works to support public schools.