A New York Times/Siena poll released recently showed Trump ahead in three battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. While this is just one poll, and overall polling averages show a tied race across the Sun Belt, not a Trump lead, it’s clear that Harris faces deep challenges in the region. 

What’s the problem, exactly—and how can donors help? Let’s dig in, going through each state. 

Arizona: To me, the most alarming data point from the Times poll was that just 49% of likely Latino voters in Arizona said they planned to vote for Harris, with 41% favoring Trump. This margin is 15 points below Biden’s performance. Harris is also way behind Biden’s final vote share with rural voters, non-college whites, and young people. To address these deficits, Blue Tent recommends donating to Living United for Change in Arizona (LUCHA). It’s the most effective voter outreach group in the state, with a deep understanding of Latino voters. When I talked earlier this year to its executive director, Alex Gomez, she told me that LUCHA saw 2024 as a “persuasion election." Current polling bears that out, with Latino voters trusting Trump more not just on the economy but also on immigration. Unless more Latinos swing behind Harris, she may lose the state. LUCHA is working hard to make that happen. (Read Blue Tent’s memo on Arizona.)

Georgia: While Donald Trump won just 6% of Black voters in Georgia in 2020, the Times poll has him winning 10% of this group. Likewise, Trump is also doing a few points better with Georgia's young voters than last time. These gains don’t sound large, but they could make the difference in a state that Biden won by just 11,799 votes. To help win Georgia, Blue Tent recommends the Georgia Youth Justice Coalition (GYJC). It’s the state’s leading voter group focused on young people, with a major emphasis on young Blacks, a 500,000-strong group of registered voters that the research center CIRCLE called “a major force in the Georgia electorate” that was decisive to Biden’s 2020 win. Just 40% of 18-29-year-old Blacks voted in 2020. Boosting this number and repeating Biden’s high vote share could decide the outcome in Georgia. GYJC is working hard to do both.

North Carolina: Democrats have gotten a major boost in North Carolina by the implosion of the GOP nominee for governor there, Mark Robinson. However, the Times poll reminds us that North Carolina remains a heavy lift for Harris, who has yet to match Biden’s margins with key groups when he narrowly lost the state in 2020 by 75,000 votes. She leads young voters by a mere 8 points and isn’t close to Biden’s vote share with non-college whites and rural voters. In North Carolina, too, Trump has made big enough inroads with Black voters to decide a very close election. To win the state, Blue Tent recommends the two most effective voter groups working to elect Harris: Carolina Federation and Down Home North Carolina. Together, they’re engaged in unprecedented voter outreach across rural, suburban, and urban areas. (Read Blue Tent’s memo on North Carolina.)

I hope these suggestions are helpful. Remember, polls are always suspect—Michael Podhorzer has called them “opinion journalism.” But they do contain insights into where Harris needs help. And, as donors, we can act on these insights, directing our money to where it’s needed most.