Tuesday’s elections were across-the-board dismal for Democrats. The party lost badly in Virginia, with gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe getting trounced and the House of Delegates apparently now under GOP control. In New Jersey, Democratic incumbent Governor Phil Murphy appears to have won—but barely, in a race that hardly anyone thought would be close. Despite worries that Democratic enthusiasm would dip precipitously after Donald Trump’s departure from the White House, turnout was high, and McAuliffe got more votes than Ralph Northam did when he won in 2017. The problem was that Republicans were even more fired up than Democrats.
We’re now faced with two reasons to despair. The first is simply the loss of power that these electoral failures represent. The second is that if the 2022 midterms resemble the results from Virginia and New Jersey, it would be an unmitigated disaster. The silver lining is that the political environment could shift between now and then: Democrats in Congress could finally deliver on major legislation, supply chain issues that have left grocery store shelves empty could be resolved, gas prices could drop, and President Joe Biden’s rock-bottom approval rating could rebound. (Or everything could get worse.) But this is a very, very bad result. Here are some basic takeaways for donors who may feel like the sky has fallen on them this week:
Money can’t buy victories
A lot of effort goes into identifying high-leverage races and routing money and other resources to candidates who really need it. At Blue Tent, we advise donors, even small donors, to give to campaigns where that money could make a difference. But many races aren’t determined by money. A bad candidate or lousy fundamentals can make victory or defeat inevitable. The starkest example of this comes from New Jersey, where State Senate President Steve Sweeney has apparently lost to a first-time candidate who spent $153 on his campaign. Even if you give in ways that will maximize your money’s impact, elections are unpredictable, wild things.
But giving to state-level candidates is still important
The only good news for Virginia Democrats last night was that they have retained control of the state Senate, so Republicans won’t have control of a trifecta there. But at least a lot of House of Delegates races were close, indicating that for the foreseeable future, Virginia’s elections are going to be dogfights where every vote counts.
In September, Blue Tent highlighted three delegate candidates worth giving to: Joshua Cole, Nancy Guy and Debra Gardner. All three lost, but by slim margins, with Guy and Cole losing by fewer than 1,000 votes apiece. As a donor, you want to put your money in races where the outcome is in doubt, and there were many of those opportunities in Virginia.
Donors should prepare for the worst in 2022
If anyone thought Democrats could buck historic trends and retain control of Congress in the 2022 midterms, that now seems very unlikely. Winning seats in the House or Senate is probably not going to happen, though maybe—maybe—Democrats can defeat Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, given his Trumpism. Maybe, too, John Fetterman—who’s been raising tons of money—can win that open Senate seat in Pennsylvania. In 2020, Democrats were a bit overconfident about how many seats they could win and didn’t play enough defense. While 2022 does offer some pickup opportunities—I’d add the governorship of Georgia to the list if Stacey Abrams runs—Democratic donors should prioritize holding onto the Senate seats they won last year and also shoring up vulnerable House members. While it’s going to be hard to hold the House, the fewer seats Democrats lose, the better.
Time to think long-term
If victories are unlikely in 2022, donors should work to lay the foundation for 2024, 2026 and 2028. That means engaging in far greater giving to organizing groups in key states like Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Virginia and elsewhere. (Blue Tent has published pieces about giving to such groups in the South.) If the next few cycles follow the pattern of the last few, Democratic candidates will match or exceed the fundraising of their Republican opponents in many cases. But campaign cash isn’t enough to win. That’s where long-term organizing comes in. Groups that work to turn nonvoters into voters and infrequent voters into reliable members of the Democratic base are a necessary part of any future victories for Democrats. This week was hard. The midterms may be still harder. But politics is a slow process, and donors need to invest for the long haul.