Election Day comes this Tuesday in Virginia, with control of the state legislature and the governor’s seat hanging in the balance. Virginia, once a reliably red state, turned a bluish shade of purple during the Trump era, and Democrats’ ability to maintain control of the state will be seen as a sign of the party’s electoral chances heading into the 2022 midterms. Polls show a dead heat between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Todd Youngkin, and the battle for the House of Delegates is likely to be on a knife’s edge, as well. As Democrats around the country obsess over the polls and minutiae of a campaign’s final days, they may want to donate to McAuliffe, one or more House candidate, or a local Virginia organization. (We’ve covered some of the giving opportunities available to donors here.)
But money that comes so late in campaigns is less useful than money given early in a cycle. “Early giving helps people plan,” said Julie Jakopic, a strategy consultant in Virginia who ran for a House of Delegates seat in 2015. “Early giving is important because people can lay out their strategy.” But late money is still helpful, albeit a little less so.
What late donations can buy
In the days immediately before an election, donations that come in can’t be used for things that campaigns can spend on early in the cycle, like planning field operations or producing digital and TV ads. Most of the time, Jakopic told Blue Tent, late-in-the-race small donations are used to push out existing digital ads to a wider audience. “It allows people to expand what they're already doing,” she said. "They're not producing something else. They're putting it out more.”
In particular, campaigns are likely focusing on digital get-out-the-vote operations. This is a form of content where viewers are encouraged to make a plan to vote or commit to casting a ballot; research has shown that people who do so are more likely to vote. Especially in an off-year election like this one, the old cliche is true: It’s going to come down to turnout. In Virginia, where early voting has been taking place since September 17, GOTV operations aren't limited to telling people to prepare themselves for Election Day, but can tell people to go vote right now.
Digital GOTV can take many forms, including Google ads targeting people who search election-related terms (McAuliffe's campaign has invested heavily in this, according to the digital-focused newsletter FWIW, spending $644,500 on Google ads from October 17 to October 23 alone). Or they can be more traditional advertisements that take the term of videos and posts promoted in Facebook feeds and on other social networks. One place Democrats and left-leaning groups have invested relatively heavily is Snapchat, where a lot of young potential voters—who may not consume much in the way of old-fashioned media—hang out.
So think of your donation as a way for a candidate to buy a few additional eyeballs for a message about the importance of voting delivered to someone who will cast a Democratic ballot if they get around to it–with luck, that person will get swayed into voting, and if this happens enough, maybe the Democrats win an extra House of Delegates seat.
How to be smart about late-cycle giving
The best way to make sure that your donations are having an impact is to give to down-ballot races, where less money is involved and campaigns are often badly in need of cash. That still holds true when you’re giving at the last minute.
“State and local races are built on small dollars,” Jakopic said. In gubernatorial races, where each candidate is throwing around millions, “that $1,000 or that $100 isn't going to be the thing that makes the difference right now. In some of these delegate races, it absolutely is.”
(If you don’t have time to research which candidates to give to, Swing Left has an ActBlue page that splits your money between 10 particularly needy candidates.)
Another way to think about political donations is that it is pretty late in Virginia and your money won’t likely have the impact it would had you donated months ago, when campaigns were ramping up. But there are a lot of midterm races coming up in 2022, and lots of opportunities to donate early in that cycle. If you have a group that you like, set up a recurring donation so that that group can rely on it to come in and budget accordingly. If you know you’re going to want to donate directly to candidates, set up a reminder on your phone for next year. (Most primaries will be happening in May and June, so by the end of June it should be clear which state-level candidates are going to be close.)
So it’s not too late to get involved in Virginia. But it’s also never a bad idea to be early for the next round of elections.
And one last thing. As we explained in our earlier action brief on the Virginia election, remember that you can also volunteer your time, which can be more effective in the final days of campaigns, when frantic work is underway to get out the vote. (See the brief for our recommendations on where to volunteer to help Democrats win in Virginia.)