As we’ve noted before, Virginia’s elections are likely the most important event on the electoral calendar this year. Victories in the gubernatorial race, House of Delegates contests, and State Senate elections would cement Democratic control over a swing state that has been trending blue for another cycle. Losing to Republicans would mean that Glenn Youngkin, the gubernatorial candidate at the top of the GOP ticket, would get to enact his retrograde agenda that would include restricting access to abortion and erecting obstacles to the ballot box. Top Democrats, including in the White House, also worry that a Youngkin victory could set off a panic within the party as 2022 approaches.
This sense of high stakes has fueled a rising tide of Democratic giving for the races in Virginia, which has notably loose campaign finance laws that place no limits on how much an individual can give to candidates. It’s hard to see exactly how that money is flowing because you can’t see campaign finance reports in real time, but a recent wave of reports has given us insight into all the money raised before September. (All of the numbers below are courtesy of the great website VPAP.) This is good news for Democrats for the most part, so it’s worth looking at some top-line takeaways:
Democrats are crushing Republicans in fundraising
While there were some worries that Democrats would relax a little bit with Donald Trump out of office, so far, the donor class at least still feels a sense of urgency. National Democratic committees are raking in the bucks, and donors have been giving lots to candidates in Virginia, as well. In the House of Delegates, Democrats have raised $27 million to just under $14 million for Republicans; in the State Senate, the edge is $4.2 million to $2.8 million.
Youngkin is winning the money contest by giving himself loans
The exception is the top of the ticket, where Terry McAuliffe, a former governor, should have no trouble raising money. But he’s lagging behind Youngkin, $31 million to $35 million. Does that mean Youngkin is tapping into enthusiasm from Republican donors? No, it just means that Youngkin, a former businessman, loaned himself $16.5 million. If Democrats continue to edge Republicans in fundraising, the GOP may turn to more candidates who can self-fund, like former Georgia Sen. Kelly Loeffler. (Self-funders often aren’t great candidates otherwise, as former Sen.r Loeffler can attest.)
Everyone did a great job funneling money where it’s needed
In our last post about Virginia, we pointed to a few candidates who had received attention and endorsements from national progressive groups but were lagging behind in terms of donations. Those candidates aren’t lagging behind any longer. House of Delegates candidate Nancy Guy (who won her last election by just 41 votes) is running in one of the most anticipated races, and she brought in over $297,000 in the period from the beginning of July to the end of August. Joshua Cole, a House candidate that Blue Tent singled out (along with Guy) as a high-leverage opportunity for donors, raised $316,000 in that same period. Wendy Gooditis, who led all candidates with $440,000 raised, was another widely praised and endorsed candidate.
This is great news, as it suggests that donors and organizations are concentrating money where it’s most needed. Of course, people could be really wrong about which races will be close, and some of these resources may turn out to be misallocated, but all the party and allied groups can do is identify races that look to be close and support those candidates.
Opportunities for donors
To be honest, it’s a little bit late to think about donating in Virginia. Early voting has been taking place for weeks, and campaigns have less flexibility when it comes to what they can reasonably spend on. As the year winds down, it’s probably time to look ahead to the midterms. For donors focused on state-level contests, that means supporting organizations like the DLCC, Swing Left and Sister District. Donating to these groups as they ramp up for an extremely consequential election cycle should be a top priority.
But if you still want to help in Virginia, there are a couple of options. Debra Gardner is one of the candidates we wrote about last time, waging a competitive House race against a Republican incumbent. She raised a decent amount of money in the last reporting period at $220,000, but that’s less than some of the other candidates who have been getting attention, and she’s worth supporting. You can donate to her here.
Also, it should be noted that the governor’s race is the most important contest in the state, and though so much money has been poured into it that a small donation won’t do a whole lot, Democrats need to retain the governor’s mansion in Virginia, and fighting Youngkin’s millions will take a lot of donations. You can donate to McAuliffe here.
McAuliffe has a lead in the polls, but it’s small, and President Joe Biden’s approval rating has fallen recently, making for a dangerous situation for Democrats. This race is increasingly looking like a nailbiter.