Top Progressive Groups in California Are Working Together to Flip House Seats
California’s electoral importance is unique. This behemoth-sized state is untouchably blue on the presidential and statewide level, but contains over a half dozen competitive congressional districts that could determine control of the House of Representatives this fall. Two years ago, these districts served up heartbreaking losses to Democrats amid lackluster voter turnout across the state. In the wake of those setbacks, several leading progressive organizations launched Battleground California, a super PAC to help win key House races. This effort is the first of its kind in the state, although a similar initiative — Battleground New York — has also emerged across the country, as we’ve reported.
“We created the space as a way for allies around California to share intelligence on programs, from accountability to electioneering,” said Michael Gomez Daly, a political strategist with the California Donor Table, one of the groups behind the coalition. “For us, it was a win if partners in the space organically coordinated efforts in these battleground districts.”
How Battleground California is Building an Infrastructure for Voter Engagement
Organizations involved with Battleground California include the Working Families Party, Planned Parenthood, Courage California, and many others. Each of the main partners sits on a governing board that makes decisions on funding and strategy.
Battleground California’s top goal is to flip five Republican-held House seats across the state, as well as win an open seat. It is also keeping an eye on four other races that could potentially prove nail-biting as November approaches. Gomez Daly says that the PAC expects to move around $14 million in funding for mobilization, canvassing, and direct voter engagement across the priority districts. These resources, he says, will be crucial to help blunt the financial advantage held by many of the Republican candidates in these districts.
A key goal of Battlefield California is catalyzing higher turnout in communities of color that are often neglected by Democratic campaign efforts. Groups in the mix that specialize in this work include Communities for a New California and CHIRLA Action Fund, both of which have long experience in engaging Latinos, a population that often votes at low rates. For example, some 50,000 Latinos weren’t registered in CA-13 in 2022, a district that a Republican won by 564 votes as only 32% of voter-eligible citizens cast ballots.
Turning out low-propensity voters requires building connection and trust through an organizing approach. However, most Democratic campaigns do not have the time, resources, or cultural competency to pursue this pathway. To win and then hold competitive districts in California, donors need to support grassroots work across multiple cycles. That extended time frame is built into Battleground California, which is looking beyond the 2024 cycle; it says its goal is to build a “long-term state infrastructure apparatus” that is centered on sustained partnerships and field organizing.
The Road to a Democratic House Goes Through California
Democrats can take back the House this fall by flipping just a handful of seats. And no state has more promising targets than California.
In ascending order, the first priority district on Battleground California’s list is CA-13, which is located in the central part of the state and spans from the outer reaches of the Bay Area down to Fresno. Republican John Duarte won the seat by a mere 564 votes in 2022, as noted above, making it an obvious pick-up opportunity for the Democrats in 2024.
The next priority district is CA-22 in the San Joaquin Valley north of Los Angeles. It is represented by Republican David Valadao, who defeated Rudy Salas by 3% in 2022. Salas is once again running for the seat in 2024.
Also on the list is CA-27, a district represented by Republican Mike Garcia featuring northern Los Angeles. Unlike most of the other districts Battleground California is targeting, Democrat George Whitesides holds a significant cash-on-hand advantage over the Republican incumbent.
CA-41 is Gomez Daly’s home district and is located in the Inland Empire region in southeast California. It is the only district on Battleground California’s list to have been won by Donald Trump in 2020, making it a potentially greater reach. But Democrat Will Rollins, who previously ran for this seat in 2022, is making a strong bid against incumbent Ken Calvert.
CA-45 in Orange County is represented by Republican Michelle Steele and is very diverse, with Asian voters making up 37% of the district, white voters making up 36%, and Latino voters 24%. Democrat Derek Tran emerged from a competitive primary and had to expend a considerable amount of money to do so. Gomez Daly cited Tran’s cash disadvantage as the reason that CA-45 was one of the “tougher” races on Battleground California’s list.
Finally there is CA-47, which was vacated by well-known Democratic congresswoman Katie Porter. It is the only open seat on Battleground California’s list and is located in coastal SoCal between Los Angeles and San Diego. Like CA-45, CA-47 saw a competitive Democratic primary that caused nominee Dave Min to expend resources. Porter defeated Republican Scott Baugh in 2022 by 9,000 votes, and Baugh will once again be running in 2024.
Gomez Daly said for all of these races, “We will coordinate partner independent expenditure activity to prevent duplication and maximize resources and coordinate research, polling, and messaging with partners to ensure best practices.”
A key challenge of turning out voters in California is that it isn’t a presidential battleground and has no competitive statewide races this year. Having a well-known California native, Kamala Harris, at the top of the ticket may juice turnout, but otherwise, the key to winning closely contested House races could be effective field programs that engage low-propensity voters. Battleground California is an unprecedented effort to scale up such work. If it succeeds, the coalition could change the way that congressional races are fought and won in America’s most populous state and beyond.