To Win in Nebraska CD 2, Democrats Need Strong Voter Turnout

Tony Vargas campaigning in Omaha, Nebraska.

Since 2016, organizers and donors on the left have built a formidable new infrastructure to win elections and drive policy change. We can see the results across the past three election cycles and in major legislative wins. 

But not all parts of the country have benefitted from a surge of new money and organizing capacity. Most of the funding has gone to work in presidential battleground states. Organizers in many other places still scrounge for resources. 

Nebraska is a good example. It’s a deep red state that Trump won by nearly 20 points. It hasn’t elected a Democratic senator or governor in many years, not even close. And so it isn’t on the radar of most progressive donors. 

What Tony Vargas Needs to Beat Don Bacon in NE-2

But Nebraska has a high-stakes election this year. The GOP incumbent in NE-2, Don Bacon, is among the most vulnerable members of the House. He won his race in 2022 by less than 3 points — in a district that Biden easily carried in 2020. He’s facing a strong opponent in Tony Vargas, a former public school teacher turned state senator who lost narrowly to Bacon last time.  

While Vargas is doing well with his fundraising, most of the money he raises is likely to be spent on ads targeting a narrow slice of likely voters — typical of congressional campaigns, as Toby Jaffe wrote recently on Blue Tent. The hard work of turning out less engaged citizens will be left to others. 

And hard work it is: In 2022, nearly 200,000 registered voters in NE-2 didn’t turn out to vote — in an election decided by under 6,000 votes. Many of those not voting were low-income residents of Omaha. That same pattern of under-representation can be found elsewhere in Nebraska.

Last year, an in-depth analysis of voter turnout across the state in the 2022 election by Civic Nebraska found that “census tracts with higher percentages of minority race or ethnicity householders, lower rates of high school graduates, and higher rates of poverty tended to vote less. The geographic concentration of low-turnout census tracts in specific areas of cities and counties suggests the collective voice and interests of these areas are under-represented in city, county, and state elections.”

Of course, low turnout in poorer communities is a problem everywhere in the United States. And its consequences for who holds power in the House of Representatives is especially striking: Republicans won control of that chamber in 2022 by the narrowest of margins — under 7,000 votes across 5 districts. Turnout in low-income communities was a major factor deciding nearly all of those close races, leading to a gridlocked Congress that’s blocked new initiatives by the Biden administration to address America’s deep economic inequities.

Boosting Voter Turnout in Omaha

Galvanizing higher turnout in Omaha will be a key to helping Vargas win this fall. That’s why Blue Tent recommends donating to Second House Collaborative, a 501(c)(4) that supports a coalition of groups now working to turn out voters in Omaha. 

Winning in NE-2 could decide more than who controls the U.S. House. Nebraska allocates one electoral college vote to each of its congressional districts. In a razor-thin election this fall, that margin could be decisive. 

But there’s more: Nebraskans may also vote on a ballot measure to protect abortion rights and another to guarantee paid sick leave. Strong turnout in Omaha could make all the difference in these fights, too. Donate below to the Second House Collaborative.