The 2022 midterm elections are coming up sooner than you think. In just under 14 months, President Joe Biden could be facing down the prospect of a hostile, GOP-controlled House and Senate.
It’s highly unlikely that Democrats will hang on to the House. Redistricting alone could swing control to the GOP, and historically, the president’s party usually sees losses in Congress.
That raises the stakes in the fight for Senate control. The good news for Democrats is that 2022 is shaping up to be an interestingly competitive year with potential pick-ups of long-time GOP-held seats in the Senate dangling enticingly in front of a party eager to hang on to the upper chamber.
Fundraising is off to a hot start. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) have already taken in $59,213,209 and $66,681,828, respectively; the Republicans have a cash-on-hand advantage of $25,239,200 to $10,498,685.
Progressive donors, even those who have been disappointed with the Democratic Congress so far, should flex their muscles. Small-dollar contributors are more important than ever, and can swing races with their cash flow. As Open Secrets detailed in February, Democrats in Senate contests are increasingly reliant on small-dollar donors, taking in 36.5% of all donations in 2020, a jump from 2018 (28.5%) and 2016 (14.1%).
Yet small donors will face hard choices as the battle for the Senate gets underway. Should they focus their limited funds on defending hard-won recent pickups in Arizona (Mark Kelly) and Georgia (Raphael Warnock)? Or prioritize picking up seats now held by Republicans?
Donors who are unclear on which candidates to support may be tempted to give to the party’s Senate fundraising arm, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Before you go that route, though, make sure to read our research brief on the DSCC here. We flag several aspects of how the DSCC operates that donors should know, including its record of favoring centrist candidates in primary contests.
Another option for donors is to give to a national super PAC that’s likely to be involved in multiple Senate races, such as BlackPAC, which we recently evaluated in a research brief that you can read here. Donors looking to influence the 2022 Senate races should also explore giving to key state-based progressive movement-building organizations—an option we’ll explore in a future research brief.
For now, though, let’s dig a little deeper into the pickup opportunities for Democrats, looking at four key Senate battlefields as we approach the end of 2021.
Pennsylvania, Open Seat
Republican incumbent Pat Toomey is retiring, opening up the race in Pennsylvania for the taking. Democrats have a solid candidate in Lieutenant Gov. John Fetterman. Fetterman is popular around the state and has run before, in 2016, giving him the infrastructure to make another push toward the upper chamber. He raised $2.7 million in the third quarter of 2021. The state is seen as a toss-up. Numbers showed the same thing in 2020; then, Pennsylvania went narrowly, though decisively, to Biden. With Fetterman the likely Democrat candidate, donors should start pushing cash to him now.
Wisconsin, Ron Johnson
Another toss-up state, Wisconsin’s Johnson is uniquely vulnerable. After being subject to years of Republican misrule under former Gov. Scott Walker, the Midwestern state has been moving in the opposite direction. Johnson, a two-term incumbent, beat Russ Feingold twice—dethroning the Democrat in the 2010 Tea Party wave and then riding Trump’s coattails in 2016. He’ll face an uphill battle in 2022, however, after Biden reclaimed the upper Midwest for Democrats last year. The state is set for a realignment, and donors should look closely at Lieutenant Gov. Mandela Barnes and State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski as the race takes shape.
North Carolina, Open
With Republican Senator Richard Burr retiring, Democrats have another shot at picking up a Senate seat in North Carolina—just two years after the party went all-in to elect Cal Cunningham in 2020, only to have him lose by a razor-thin margin after a late-breaking sex scandal. While North Carolina is another purple state that seems ripe to follow its neighbor Virginia into more blue territory, Trump won it in both 2016 and 2020. A number of Democrats have already announced their intention to seek the Senate nomination, but none have yet emerged as a clear favorite. Whoever gets the nod from primary voters will need major resources to compete in what is sure to be a very expensive race.
Florida, Marco Rubio
Rubio, going for his third term in the Senate, is a slightly vulnerable Republican in a battleground general election state. It’s a bit of a lift to take out a well-known incumbent, but polls show a slight move toward the Democrats in the state, likely due to Gov. Ron DeSantis’ handling of COVID and the mass death that overtook the state during the delta wave. That’s not necessarily a good harbinger for an election more than a year out, but if the trend continues, Democrats could take advantage. Rep. Val Demings is an early leader in polls, but there are other Democrats vying for the opportunity to take Rubio down.