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Democrats should become comfortable with the very likely prospect that their party will lose control of both the House and Senate in the November elections. Presidential parties tend to do badly in midterms, and inflation and high gas prices are surely not helping. But federal elections aren’t the only game in town: instead of gnashing our teeth about lost majorities in D.C., Democrats should turn to state legislative elections. That’s what this series of posts will try to do, one battleground state at a time, providing a broad overview of what’s at stake and how donors can help Democrats retain power in state legislative chambers or flip seats.
Our first state is Minnesota, which is a sign that this is not going to be a particularly feel-good series. You may think of Minnesota as a blue state — a Republican hasn’t won statewide here since Tim Pawlenty was re-elected as governor in 2006. But the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (the name for the Democratic Party affiliate) has struggled more when it comes to legislative elections.
In 2014, the GOP flipped the state house, and in 2016, the DFL lost control of the state senate, losing some races it spent aggressively on. The DFL took back control of the state house in 2018 but fell short in the senate. In the 2020 elections, the GOP retook five house seats and retained a one-seat majority in the legislature’s upper chamber — then two DFL members caucused with Republicans in a bid to secure more power for themselves. This makes Minnesota one of the few states in the U.S. where control of the legislature is split between the two major parties.
The surprisingly chaotic politics of Minnesota
The state has a history of political independence. The Farmer-Labor Party was one of the most successful third parties in U.S. history until its absorption into the Democratic Party in the 1940s. In 1998, Jesse Ventura won the governorship on the Reform Party ticket before leaving the national organization and renaming the state party the Independence Party. No third party has that much pull today, but there are two different pro-cannabis parties that are important enough that the two major parties attempt to manipulate them on occasion. In 2020 the GOP reportedly recruited legislative candidates to run on pro-cannabis party lines in an attempt to draw voters away from the DFL, and more recently DFL operatives have been allegedly caught on tape plotting to change the name of the Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis Party to the “MAGA Party” in order to trick Republican voters.
When you have third-party spoiler candidates running around it makes handicapping legislative races even more difficult, and these contests are going to be tricky to predict. Redistricting in Minnesota has made some districts less competitive but made many more into tighter races, at least judging by presidential vote margin. A Star Tribune analysis of the new districts found 15 senate and 24 house districts whose presidential vote margin was under 10%.
The good news for the DFL is many of these swing districts are located in suburban areas, which should be competitive, at least theoretically. But the two DFL senators who caucused with Republicans are retiring and will likely be succeeded by actual Republicans, and if the DFL couldn’t win the senate in 2018 and 2020 when Democratic voters nationwide were energized, it’s difficult to see the party winning the upper chamber this time around.
The DFL is on defense and offense in 2022
Most observers agree that both chambers are in play in 2022. Not only are there more competitive districts, a record 51 legislators are retiring, partly as a result of redistricting putting some incumbents in the same district. Both parties have been affected by these retirements, but as more non-incumbents run it creates one more obstacle to seeing where the most dynamic or important races will be — until the August 9 primaries, we won’t know who is facing who.
But whoever the candidates are, Minnesota is guaranteed to be a battleground. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates only 10 legislative chambers around the country as being truly competitive, and only four as “toss-ups,” but two of those four are in Minnesota. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the party arm focusing on state races, listed defending the Minnesota house as one of its top priorities in a recent strategy memo, and put taking back the state senate as a secondary priority. That’s to say Minnesota will be a battleground.
The worst-case scenario would be for Republicans to get a state government trifecta by winning not just both legislative chambers but also the governorship. Democratic incumbent Tim Walz is leading in the polls and has a fundraising advantage over all his GOP rivals, and the Cook Political Report rates the race as “likely Democratic.” It should be noted that even in this worst-case scenario, at least abortion would remain legal in Minnesota thanks to a state court ruling. Still, a lot is at stake in the legislative elections.
Options for donors
The most obvious place to give, and our top recommendation at the moment, is the DFL itself. Minnesotans can be refunded $50 per donor by the state government under the Minnesota Political Contribution Refund program, but non-Minnesotans can give as well. Donors can join the DFL Victory Club by making recurring monthly donations, which is the best way to support any political party or organization because it allows them to confidently make budgets.
Movement Voter Project, an organization we highly recommend, has a fund that splits donations between 19 different groups doing grassroots organizing in Minnesota. These groups may not by narrowly focused on the 2022 election, but supporting them helps grow the progressive ecosystem, in particular by organizing in the Black, Muslim, Latino, and LGBTQ communities.
With primaries ongoing in Minnesota it’s not our recommendation at this time to give to individual candidates, but after August 9 we should have a better idea of who the candidates in the most competitive races are, and we will update readers with recommendations at that time. Minnesota may not be a typical swing state like Georgia or Arizona, but it's vital that Democratic donors not turn away from the state lest Republicans seize power in this traditionally blue stronghold.