With the 2022 midterms less than a year away and a Democratic agenda that’s sinking fast, liberal donors have reasons to worry about the prospect of a GOP-controlled Congress for the latter half of President Joe Biden’s first term.
A new report on New Jersey’s 2021 elections from Civis Analytics gives some perspective on what voters and donors alike should expect during the midterms and offers a path to understanding where to direct dollars to state by state to have the best chance of holding the House and Senate.
At first glance, the New Jersey results seem ominous as a bellwether for Democrats. Governor Phil Murphy won reelection, but by a narrow 51.2% to 48.0% margin. Democrats kept their majorities in the state House and Senate, but lost six seats in the lower chamber, and one in the upper.
But it could have been worse. GOP voters turned out in droves, cutting the statewide advantage enjoyed by Democrats in the 2017 state elections down from 229,000 to around 11,000. If it had been spread evenly across the state, Democrats would have only the narrowest of advantages in the state legislature. That the surges in Republican voters were confined to only a few state districts limited the damage.
Civis explains that Democrats saw roughly half their loss in votes from a combination of a GOP surge of voters that didn’t come out four years ago—around 29,397—and a Republican advantage of 85,304 from drop-off votes. The other half, more concerningly, came from voters who switched their vote from 2017 to 2021.
Democrats face the same challenges in New Jersey that they do in most states around the country. The state party is entrenched and expects, rather than works to earn, the votes of its constituents. Leadership is caught in the same loop that it's been in for years, activists in the state told Blue Tent, meaning that for the most part, voters only hear from Democrats when the party wants their vote.
As Blue Tent has noted in the past, that’s not a workable approach to elections. Founder David Callahan pointed out that “mobilization alone isn’t the ticket to building a strong Democratic majority. We need to also focus on persuasion.”
In order to make that kind of effective change, Blue Tent recommends that donors prioritize groups in key states that are doing year-round work to engage people on the issues that matter to them most, laying the groundwork for high participation when elections roll around. This includes state-wide progressive organizations like New Virginia Majority, Texas Organizing Project, Florida Rising and New Georgia Project. It can also mean giving to the state or local arms of national groups like Indivisible. Alternatively, you can give to national organizations that dispense funds to groups in key battleground states through regranting, like the Center for Popular Democracy. Such donations should be made carefully. State-by-state chapters of larger groups can vary in effectiveness. For example, Indivisible chapters can be proactive members of the community trying to make change, or just monthly meetings of already committed Democrats.
At the same time, donors need to pay attention to high-stakes elections in Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona and elsewhere, where a lot of money is needed by Democratic candidates in Senate and governorship races. While it might seem paradoxical to give more money to a Val Demings or a John Fetterman, two candidates who already have large war chests and are taking in more cash by the minute, contributing to their campaigns ensures they’ll get more voters to the polls. The continuing outreach to voters from the bigger campaigns is part of an ongoing outreach of persuasion.