LUCHA is Working to Help Democrats Win in Arizona. Here’s How
Despite events of the past few weeks, not much has really changed about the 2024 election: It remains incredibly close.
In fact, as of today, 538 has Biden with a slightly better chance of winning the electoral college than Trump, with things trending his way over the past week — the exact opposite of conventional wisdom. The race’s stable nature, against a backdrop of volatility, reflects America's extreme polarization; most voters don’t shift their preferences that much these days, no matter what happens.
On the other hand, whether people vote at all remains highly variable, and turnout may be the biggest factor determining outcomes in November. When polls show a tied race, it means the election will ultimately be decided by the margin of effort. If our side works harder than theirs to get votes this year, we’ll win.
Voter Turnout Will be Decisive in Arizona in 2024
Arizona offers a great case study of how effort can make all the difference. In 2022, Democrats won the governorship by 17,000 votes, or 0.6%, out of 2.5 million votes cast. They won the race for Attorney General by just 280 votes. These squeaker wins, along with Biden’s razor-thin win two years earlier, were partly the result of an unprecedented push to engage and mobilize voters across the state by progressive organizing groups.
One organization especially stands out: Living United for Change in Arizona, or LUCHA.
Through more than a decade of organizing, this member-based group has built an electoral powerhouse that helped put Democrats over the top in the past two election cycles. Through its voter engagement program, the largest in the state, it knocked on over 800,000 doors in 2020 and 500,000 in 2022, with a major focus on Latinos. It has even bigger plans this year, aiming to knock on 1 million doors — in a state with just over 4 million registered voters.
How LUCHA Builds Trust With Arizona Voters
One reason that LUCHA is so effective is that it deploys well-trained canvassers who’ve often worked across multiple election cycles and really know the communities in which they’re working. Many are Spanish-speaking. This kind of culturally competent outreach is essential to win people’s trust, especially those who may not be inclined to vote at all because they don’t see how politics can change their lives.
But that’s not the only reason that LUCHA has become a trusted messenger in Arizona. Along with its 501(c)(3) arm, the Arizona Center for Empowerment, LUCHA works full-time to win policy changes that can improve people’s lives. Its top issues include worker rights, affordable housing, and immigration — all issues that Arizonans care about. The organization says it has helped achieve an impressive list of gains for Arizona’s working families, including paid family leave, more funding for K-12 education, assistance with college tuition, new investments in housing, and more. Like many organizing groups, LUCHA aims to build a virtuous cycle whereby people see the fruits of their civic engagement, affirming that voting can make a difference.
LUCHA says it has nearly 140,000 members, giving it deep roots in communities. And it has made a point of listening to these members through hundreds of conversations to help shape the organization’s priorities.
The High Stakes for Democrats in Arizona’s 2024 Election
The stakes in Arizona this year could hardly be greater. Besides the 11 electoral votes up for grabs, Rugen Gallego must win his race against Kari Lake for Democrats to have any chance of holding the Senate. Two GOP-held House seats are also in play: AZ-1, held by Republican David Schweikert, and AZ-6, held by Juan Ciscomani. Both are among the most vulnerable members of the House.
But there’s more: Democrats need to flip just a few seats in both state legislative chambers to secure trifecta control of Arizona’s government, and a measure that would ensure access to abortion is also likely to be on the ballot this fall.
By donating to LUCHA, you can help win all of these contests. And no matter what happens this year, you can rest assured that LUCHA is in the fight for the long haul, working to turn Arizona solidly blue. You can donate below:
Super close elections are nerve-wracking, especially when democracy is on the ballot. But one upside is that we can actually have more influence in these stressful situations, since our donations can have a greater influence in tighter races, where turning out a few thousand more voters — or just a few hundred — can decide outcomes.
