Where Late Money Can Still Make a Difference in Tough State Supreme Court Races
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Next month's elections may be some of the tightest midterms in recent memory, thanks in large part to the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. And there may be no races more affected by that ruling than those for state supreme courts, which are slated to become the arbiters of state-level abortion restrictions. But the nation’s highest court hasn’t merely punted the fate of reproductive rights down to state judges, but also countless laws impacting voting rights, racial justice, climate change and others. Further, with another highly contentious election on the horizon in 2024, supreme courts in swing states could very well end up choosing the next president.
Earlier this year, we advised donors to prioritize state supreme court races, primarily those that could decide the balance of power on the judiciary in key states. With only a few weeks left before election day, we still recommend that donors invest in these important races, but to take a page from our friends at the Justice Project (a national group focused on state supreme courts) and focus on races in four states: Ohio, Arizona, Michigan and Montana.
Groups and campaigns fighting to win the courts
In Arizona, three of the state’s seven justices are facing retention elections, meaning voters decide whether to keep the justices for another term or vote them out of office, with their replacements chosen by the governor. Democrats could very well take the Arizona governorship this year, meaning these races have massive potential to swing the high court’s balance. Donors can give to Activate 48, a statewide progressive group, to support the “No” on retention campaign.
In Montana, two seats on the court are up for grabs, with Democrats currently holding a one-vote majority. Justice Project recommends donors give to either their partner Montana Votes or the public-lands-focused group Wild Montana. Wild Montana in particular is focusing their late campaign work on attacking the record of GOP candidate James Brown, highlighting him as a threat to Montanans’ treasured right to access public lands.
Candidates that could still use direct support
Brown’s opponent is incumbent Justice Ingrid Gustafson. Gustafson and Brown are locked in a tight race, and donors should consider pitching in directly to Gustafson’s campaign. Money in this race could be doubly as effective for donors, as Montana’s small population means that every dollar goes much further. Likewise, while Montana may not be a key state in future presidential elections anytime soon, maintaining a progressive bulwark in a deep red state could prevent the implementation of many disastrous policies, while laying the foundation for a progressive renewal in the state.
Like Montana, Michigan’s high court has a one-vote Democratic majority, with two seats up for grabs in November. Incumbent Justice Richard Bernstein will likely cruise to re-election, while state representative Kyra Harris Bolden is fighting to unseat Republican Brian Zahra. Bolden is facing a difficult race, as incumbent judges rarely lose, but her victory would give Democrats a supermajority on a state court that could very well decide the 2024 elections.
Finally, the Justice Project recommends that donors support Judge Marilyn Zayas and Judge Terri Jamison, two of the three Democratic women running for Ohio’s high court. Like Bernstein in Michigan, incumbent Justice Jennifer Brunner is facing a much less strenuous fight for re-election, while challengers Zayas and Jamison could use all the help they can get.
Conclusion
The 2022 campaign has been one of the strangest midterm cycles in recent memory, going from an expected Republican sweep to Democrats facing decent odds to hold or even improve many of their majorities on the federal and state levels. Just don’t forget that some of the most important majorities for Democrats in coming years will be on the courts, and donating effectively now could mean building serious progressive power in the future.