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One of the reasons that Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin is so scary to me is that he’s, well, not very scary. He comes across as a sensible, moderate soccer dad — even as he embraces much of the MAGA agenda. That combination helped him win two years ago in a blue state and could make him a powerful presidential candidate in 2028. As I've written elsewhere, it's not so hard to imagine a winning "MAGA-lite” formula, one that could woo suburban voters and Trumpists alike. Youngkin could be the politician who knits that coalition together.
A key to Youngkin's fortunes will be his ability to get things done. Republicans have a narrow hold on the Virginia House and are hoping to flip the Senate in November. If they succeed, the GOP will have trifecta control and can push through a range of damaging policies — while teeing up Youngkin for political stardom. Oh, and one other thing: Republicans could exploit trifecta control to try to overturn the results of the 2024 presidential election in the state.
But another scenario is possible this year: Democrats win the handful of House seats needed to take back that chamber, while also holding onto the Senate. Youngkin will find his agenda blocked and, hopefully, his upward trajectory as one of the GOP’s most promising new talents will falter.
We can help make this scenario come true by donating to two key electoral organizing groups: New Virginia Majority and CASA in Action. Both exemplify the growing power and sophistication of today’s progressive infrastructure.
New Virginia Majority, founded in 2007, has been a leading pioneer of state-based organizing work to change who votes and gets heard in politics, with a focus on bringing communities of color more fully into civic life. Its efforts to win elections and policy battles have been strategic and sustained. It has a track record of success and a detailed plan for mobilizing voters in key districts in this year’s legislative races, which we’ve reviewed. We strongly recommend donating now to NVM. (You can do so here.)
CASA in Action works across mid-Atlantic states to improve lives for immigrant and working-class families. Its voter program, which has demonstrated its effectiveness in recent elections, focuses on mobilizing Latino and Black voters. In many legislative districts in Virginia and beyond, Latinos are the fastest-growing group, yet their voting rates often lag well behind the rest of the electorate. CASA in Action is working to change that — and help permanently change the balance of power in key states.
CASA in Action’s 2023 plans in Virginia, which we’ve also reviewed, explains that its “methodology includes developing micro-target messaging to Black and Latino voters.” It goes on to say that its “powerful ground game, innovative relational organizing plan, and outstanding communications program will knock over 60,000 voter doors, engage hundreds of thousands through communications outreach,” and help flip not just state legislative seats, but local offices. We strongly recommend donating now to CASA in Action. (You can do so here.)
Blue Tent is not recommending donating to any candidates in the Virginia races, consistent with our view that elections are mainly won not by who’s running, but by who's voting. Changing the electoral math in key states requires sustained investments in groups like NVM and CASA in Action. In fact, one reason that President Joe Biden won Virginia by 10 points in 2020 and Obama twice won the state before him is because of strong progressive organizing over many years. It took a lot of work to turn Virginia blue — but it has lately slipped back into play. Donors can help change that, ensuring both legislative wins this fall and that the state remains in the Democratic column next year.