Gavin Newsom should be safe. The governor of California has had his share of missteps—most infamously, perhaps, he had a meal at a Michelin-starred restaurant last fall as the state was asking residents to avoid indoor socializing—but his approval rating has consistently remained above 50 percent. He won election in 2018 handily, and would surely be a heavy favorite should he run for reelection in 2022. But he may not get there, because a campaign to recall him and replace him with a Republican could unseat him next month, a strangely precarious spot for the popular governor of the biggest state in the country.
There are far more Democrats than Republicans in California, and Newsom has most of the money on his side, as well. The Los Angeles Times is tracking how much has been raised by both committees and individual candidates (including Newsom), and according to its tracker, the effort to keep Newsom in office is outraising his opponents by a combined $57 million to $22.4 million. (That includes more than $6 million spent by businessman John Cox on his own campaign.)
Still, it’s become clear that Republicans are much more energized than Democrats to cast ballots in the September 14 election. Newsom has about a month to make sure that his voters know that an election is happening and how they should vote. (There are essentially no Democrats running, as Newsom’s camp worried that might encourage some voters to vote in favor of the recall.) Democrats in the legislature moved the election date up in what was apparently an effort to make it harder to unseat Newsom, but that may backfire as recent polls of likely voters show a nearly even split—it's now Democrats who need to rush to educate their voters or suffer a bizarre defeat in a state they should control. Though whoever wins will only serve until the 2022 election, defending Newsom is absolutely a priority for Democrats in this off-year for elections.
Donors looking to help out don't have a ton of options, but here is some actionable advice:
If you are going to give, give now
As noted above, Newsom and his allies have a big money advantage; arguably they don't really need more donations. But with the election a month away, if you want to contribute financially you should do it now. Late money is never all that helpful.
As for where your money should go, you can give to Newsom directly, or donate to the California Democratic Party, which is one of many organizations doing get-out-the-vote work. Phone banking and door-to-door canvassing will be vital tools. Which brings up another point:
Volunteer time instead of money
Newsom may not need more cash, but he can always use more volunteers. California Democrats are holding phone banks five days a week, and labor organizations are engaged in a host of activities all around the state, including some in-person canvassing. (Democrats didn’t do a lot of door-knocking in 2020 due to pandemic fears, and this may have hurt them, but they appear to have learned from this.) If you’re in California, find the website of your local county Democratic party and find out how to get involved.
Spread the word
“Relational organizing” has become a hot term in the past few years; basically, it just refers to organizing people you know rather than strangers. The recall presents an opportunity for Democratic Californians to do some low-key relational organizing by just letting their friends and social media followers know that an election is happening. Bring it up at brunch, on Facebook, on Zoom get-togethers, wherever you can—the more people are paying attention to this election, the better. The only way Republicans can win is if Democrats are tuned out, and getting your circle tuned in can contribute in a big way to a Newsom victory.
California Democrats may not universally like the job Newsom has done. But whatever disagreements they may have with him, they should be all-in on stopping the recall, because the alternatives are nightmarish: The front-runner on the Republican side is Larry Elder, a conservative talk show host with retrograde views and a penchant for spreading disinformation on COVID and climate change. If the recall is successful, Elder could become governor with a small plurality of the total votes cast. The only thing that can stop him is Democrats realizing what’s at stake.