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In the 2022 elections, Democrats face a difficult project. Their majorities in the House and Senate are razor-thin, and midterm history and President Joe Biden’s low approval rating indicate that Republicans are going to have an enthusiasm advantage. Meanwhile, they will also be fighting battles in state-level races, including governorships, secretaries of state and lower-profile legislature seats—the latter an arena where Republicans have had a history of out-maneuvering Democrats.
In Blue Tent’s strategy memo for 2022, our very first recommendation for donors is to give to organizations doing on-the-ground work in swing states. Such giving has a multiplier effect, with groups in key states working to support candidates up and down the ballot. For instance, successful organizing in Arizona could help flip the state’s governorship and legislature and maintain Democratic control of the U.S. Senate at the same time. The other advantage to these groups is that they are working to build power over the long haul, so even if Democrats suffer losses in 2022, investments in these groups could pay off in future cycles as these groups grow, prosper, and organize voters in 2024 and beyond. (Read our donor guidance brief: Giving to Elect Democrats and Build Progressive Power in 2022.)
That said, giving to candidates is also critical in this cycle—as long as you’re targeting your money carefully. And doing that isn’t rocket science. We recommend candidates that meet three simple criteria:
1. They have a strong chance of winning. Donors should prioritize the most competitive races and resist the temptation to give to candidates with little chance of winning. We assess a candidate's viability using the ratings by Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, 538’s partisan “lean” metric, and aggregated polling.
2. The race is important. Donors should prioritize races where the outcomes will be most consequential. These include Senate and House races, with control of both chambers at stake, as well as gubernatorial races. Races for secretary of state and attorney general are also highly consequential in some states during this election cycle, given the risk of election subversion in 2024, as are state legislative races where it may be possible to flip control of a chamber.
3. The candidate needs money. Donors should prioritize candidates who need to raise additional funds to compete. We assess a candidate’s financial needs by looking at their last reported cash on hand relative to the cost of competing in their state or district.
All this sounds obvious and you can dig deeper into our criteria here: Giving to Democratic Candidates in 2022: Advice for Donors. In practice, though, not many candidates meet these requirements in 2022.
The top races are already flooded with money
While Democrats have an uphill climb ahead of them in the midterms, they don’t suffer from a lack of donor enthusiasm. As we’ve written previously, the party’s national committees and their candidates in 2021 elections were flush with money, and the latest FEC reports (which cover up until the end of 2021) show that the Senate candidates, who are running in the country’s most important races, have millions in cash on hand, sometimes tens of millions. Cheri Beasley, the presumptive nominee in North Carolina, is the only Democrat running for Senate who you could make a case needs money at this time. (We rated her a priority in our most recent round of candidate recommendations.) The most prominent House races are in a similar place, with many vulnerable Democratic incumbents sitting on fairly solid war chests.
This doesn’t mean that we are advising all donors to stay away from donating to Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock, for instance. But small and medium donors, who don’t have the funds to max out donations to a slate of candidates, won’t have much of an impact donating to these high-profile races, which are important and winnable—and will attract a flood of resources from top donors, Democratic Party committees and super PACs.
Finding value
A donor concerned with value ends up on a bit of absurd-sounding advice: Give to candidates you haven’t heard of. Or to put it another way, the politicians you hear about all the time on the news are probably already successful fundraisers and do not need your small donation. The people who do need it are out there, but they take some searching to find. They will mostly be running for lower-profile state and local races. Sometimes, these races have important implications for policy and for future elections, but they suffer from a lack of attention because of the national media’s laser-like focus on the Senate and House.
One example: our first candidate to get the highly recommended rating is Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, an incumbent facing a tough reelection campaign in a state that will be vital to Joe Biden’s 2024 reelection campaign. The danger is that a GOP candidate could win here who believes that the 2020 election was “stolen” from Donald Trump and will crack down on nonexistent voter fraud, thereby disenfranchising voters and opening the door to the dark possibility that Biden loses next time because of Republican chicanery.
Blue Tent will likely be recommending more secretary of state candidates as Election Day approaches. To learn more about these races, read our strategy brief: Winning Secretary of State Races: Options for Donors. Blue Tent is also paying close attention to races for another critical statewide office: attorney general. These officials, too, may play a role for good or ill in deciding electoral outcomes in key states in 2024. And while AG candidates usually can raise much more money than candidates for secretaries of state, small donors can make a big difference in certain races. Learn more about giving for AG races in our strategy brief: Winning State Attorney General Races: Options for Donors. Finally, we are looking at state legislative candidates, because traditionally, there is value in giving to these races, where money is often badly needed and which can be decided by vote margins in the double digits. We explain these races in our strategy brief: Winning the Battle for State Legislatures: Options for Donors. Organizations that identify key state legislative candidates and channel support to them include the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, Future Now, and Sister District Project.
You should research every candidate you donate to, of course, but these sources are a good jumping-off point. Learning about state legislative candidates can be rewarding in and of itself, too, as you’ll acquire knowledge about a level of politics most people, even most donors, don’t have. Giving to candidates can be a valuable way to participate in the democratic process, but it feels even better when your giving is guided by a clear strategy and your dollars could be the thing to push a campaign over the edge.