Mark Reinstein/Shutterst
One thing that’s clear about the 2024 battle for the Senate is that Democratic donors are going to invest a boatload of money — probably over $1 billion, judging by totals from the last two election cycles. In fact, I’ll bet such spending will hit a record high as Democrats defend eight seats that are in either red or battleground states.
What’s less clear is how much of this money will also help build up long-term progressive power in key states — investments that leave something behind regardless of whether Democratic candidates win or lose.
Will the vast majority of donors do what they usually do — which is to give directly to candidates and mainstream Democratic Party fundraising groups? Or will a greater share of them give in ways this cycle that will both help win key Senate races and bolster grassroots organizing infrastructure?
In part, the answer to these questions depends on what appeals donors hear amid the cacophonous din of Democratic fundraising. And unfortunately, as I recently discussed, most donors still get their information from candidates and party committees. Alternative sources of guidance, such as post-2016 funding intermediaries like Movement Voter Project, Way to Win and Mind the Gap have very limited reach among Democratic donors so far.
That’s a big problem, and it’s not clear how to solve it.
Still, a growing number of donors are hearing the message that they need to invest in infrastructure — and are responding with a rising tide of giving. So looking to 2024, what is the Senate strategy that advocates of infrastructure investments should be pitching to donors of all sizes? I have a few ideas.
A Division of Labor
Let’s start by conceding an unhappy truth: Democrats will have little choice but to spend big on traditional campaign activities — especially television advertising. Hate on it all you want, but these ads can still tip an election. We saw that last year in Wisconsin when the GOP plowed tens of millions of dollars into negative ads that help define Mandela Barnes as soft on crime. Barnes didn’t have enough money to respond (and was ultimately outspent by more than $20 million). He lost by just one point.
Democratic donors will need to pony up a huge fortune in the ‘23-‘24 cycle to fight the air war. Much of that money will go to deep-pocketed players like the DSCC, Senate Majority PAC and Priorities USA, as well as to candidates’ campaign operations.
There’s nothing wrong with giving to these entities. Somebody has to do it. But even if you go that route, you should also be focused on making longer-term investments in this cycle.
Investing in Battleground Infrastructure
To keep their majority, Democrats need to hold on to Senate seats in five presidential battleground states: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. They also need to secure seats in Montana, Ohio and West Virginia.
Yikes.
Yet while this constellation of races — combined with zero pickup opportunities — looks grim, it also presents donors with a rich menu of infrastructure giving options. That’s especially true in the five battleground states, all of which are home to strong progressive groups that are organizing for the long haul.
Blue Tent recommended a bunch of these groups in 2022. See our state guidance briefs on Pennsylvania and Michigan, as well as blog posts recommending organizing groups in Arizona and Wisconsin. We’ll be revisiting these options for 2024 and are likely to recommend many of the same organizations. In the meantime, a great way for donors to support grassroots work in battleground states is through the Movement Voter Project, which has funds focused on each of these states. As the election gets closer, other funding intermediaries like Mind the Gap and Focus for Democracy will offer evidence-based options for investing in the most cost-effective voter mobilization efforts in battleground states. Blue Tent will share those recommendations as they become available.
The beauty of funding voter organizing work is that donors can help achieve multiple goals at once.
First, your money will help boost turnout for races up and down the ballot — not just for a particular candidate. That will be especially important next year when voters in battleground states will be casting ballots in both the presidential and Senate races, as well as in closely contested legislative races.
Second, giving for organizing work helps lay the groundwork for future victories — no matter what the fate of a particular candidate. In every election, grassroots groups are steadily building up their connections to voters and their reserves of experienced organizers. In contrast, even a $100 million losing Senate campaign may leave little behind that will help Democrats next time around.
Finally, grassroots groups don’t just go into hibernation between elections. Instead, they work through the year to score policy wins — tapping into the same capacity and networks that they deploy during campaign season. Investing in these groups is especially important in the five battleground states with Senate races, all of which have Democratic governors working to show that they can deliver real change.
Give Now to Turn Around Red States Later
The toughest Senate races next year will be in enemy territory, with three Democrats in solidly red states up for reelection: Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Joe Manchin in West Virginia and Jon Tester of Montana. Here, too, donors have an opportunity to give for the long term.
Ohio and Montana should be top targets. In my recent blog post on how Democrats might build a supermajority of 60 seats in the Senate, I argue that both states could be part of that equation. Each has the potential to swing blue eventually — if Democrats can figure out how to improve their margins with non-college-educated whites while also maximizing whatever base they have in these states, especially Ohio.
I think that’s doable. It’s taken a while, but many progressive donors and organizers are finally prioritizing work to better connect with voters in rural and small-town America. I discuss these efforts in my Senate post and you can also check out this Blue Tent brief: Building Progressive Power in Rural America: Options for Donors. A key thing to keep in mind is that Democrats don’t need to win outright in deep red rural counties. We just need to lose by less while driving up turnout in cities and suburbs.
Given that Ohio and Montana are both long-term targets for a Democratic Party that badly needs to expand its electoral map, the 2024 Senate map offers donors a chance to get started now on this project.
I don’t have a ready set of options for infrastructure giving in Ohio and Montana, so stay tuned for that. One thing I do know is that there are a bunch of municipal elections coming up across Ohio this year, including in Cleveland and Cincinnati. Investing in organizing around these races can help lay the groundwork for voter turnout efforts in 2024. I'll have more details on that in a few months. In the meantime, keep in mind this broader point: Helping Sherrod Brown and Jon Tester survive next year will be a very heavy lift. Which is all the more reason to give in ways that build toward a bluer future in both states no matter how these tough races turn out.