Here's How Harris Wins—and Where Donors Can Still Help

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With the polls tied and eight days to go till the election, Harris has a clear path to victory. But there’s more that donors can do to help her get to 270.

The most likely way that Harris wins is by substantially overperforming among white women while matching Biden’s 2020 margins among non-college whites, Blacks, Latinos, and young people. Let’s walk through how Harris can achieve her goals with each of these demographic groups and where last-minute donations can still make a difference.

She Overperforms with White Women
White women make up nearly half the electorate in the crucial battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These women, especially those with college degrees, have been trending Democratic since the Dobbs decision. If this trend holds, and Harris does a few points better than Biden among white women in the Blue Wall states, she’s likely to win the election. Yet polls show she still has work to do in these final days. Your best giving option to help is Galvanize Action, which is using last-minute funds to pay for tested digital ads that are proven to move moderate white women toward Harris. Donate.

She Holds the Line with Non-College Whites
Harris won’t come anywhere close to winning a majority of these voters; instead, her goal is to match Biden’s vote share among non-college whites (37%) and avoid Hillary’s fate (35%) since even a tiny slippage with this huge slice of the electorate could doom her in the Blue Wall states. Your best giving option to help Harris achieve this urgent imperative, as well as help Senate and House candidates in tight races, is Working America, which is talking to tens of thousands of voters every night through its field program and also running tested digital ads on social media networks. (The New York Times recently covered this group.) Donate.

She Rallies Young People
Signs suggest that young people are not as fired up as they’ve been in past elections and that Trump has made significant gains with young men. The good news is that extensive efforts are underway to rally young people behind Harris. Young women are especially crucial here. They’ve moved left since Dobbs and vote at much higher rates than young men. Your best giving option to help pump up the youth vote is the Alliance for Youth Action, which is sending last-minute funds to youth groups working on 215 college campuses in key states to get young people to the polls. Donate.

She Limits Slippage with Latinos 
Polls suggest that Trump has made gains with Latino voters, who overwhelmingly say the economy is their top issue. Harris needs to limit these gains, and that’s especially important in Arizona, where Latinos will likely make up 20% of the electorate. Biden won 63% of Latino voters in Arizona in 2020, but polls have shown Harris struggling to match that support. If she doesn’t, she’s likely to lose Arizona. Your best giving option to help is LUCHA, an electoral powerhouse that is running a large voter outreach program with a heavy focus on Latinos. Donate.

She Turns Out Black Voters at High Levels
While Trump has also made inroads with Black voters, weak turnout poses the bigger threat to Harris’s chances. Nowhere may this matter more than in Pennsylvania, where Blacks make up a small but crucial slice of the electorate. If their turnout lags, especially in Philadelphia, Trump could win the state. The biggest challenge to getting many of these voters to cast a ballot is convincing them that it will make a difference in their lives. Your best giving option here is One PA, a grassroots group with deep experience connecting to the state’s Black voters. It has a large canvassing operation underway and still needs funds for its final GOTV push. Donate.

Since I started Blue Tent in 2021, I've encouraged donors to prioritize voter engagement groups over candidates. In a tight election like this, turnout is all-important, with victory won on the margins. The good news is that our side has been investing since 2016 in building the most powerful turnout machine in history. We're much better positioned than the Republicans to win a tied race where "the margin of effort" will make all the difference. But we're not there yet, so I hope you can dig deeper and give whatever is possible.