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The leaked Supreme Court draft decision that would overturn Roe v. Wade was a shock to the political system. Even though striking down Roe has been a major goal of the conservative movement, and even though Republicans have, through luck and norm-breaking, stacked the Supreme Court with anti-choice justices, the draft arrived like a thunderbolt, with progressives gathering on Twitter to grieve and vent — and Democratic fundraisers doing what they do best, blasting out donor solicitations.
“Reproductive rights will be on the ballot this year. We must fight back with everything we have,” read one representative text from the Democratic National Committee, which asked for $10. According to CNBC, Democrats and aligned groups raised $7 million through ActBlue as of Tuesday, just a day after the draft decision was published by Politico.
Democratic committees and candidates running for all levels of office are using this moment to ask for money so they can respond to this assault on abortion rights. That’s no scandal — they’ll use any newsworthy moment to ask for money, and clearly this is a time when Democratic donors are fired up. But donors should be skeptical of some of these asks. After all, Democrats control Congress and the White House. Theoretically, they could codify Roe into law, as Barack Obama promised to do before the 2008 election before quietly backtracking, even though Democrats controlled both chambers of Congress after his victory. If donors open their wallets (as they have been doing throughout this cycle) and boost Democratic House and Senate candidates, and by some miracle, Democrats retain control of Congress… even then, is there actually a pathway to reproductive rights legislation?
Currently, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has promised to hold a vote on codifying Roe, but given that Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin and Bob Casey have previously declined to support such legislation, this will likely be a symbolic vote rather than a substantive one. If Democrats picked up two Senate seats this cycle and kept the House, they could rewrite the Senate filibuster rules and make abortion legal across the country. However, given the struggles of Democrats to pass major legislation on partisan lines during this current Congress, it’s fair to be skeptical they’d deliver. (Congressional leaders continue to support the reelection of Texas Rep. Henry Cuellar, a rare anti-choice Democrat.)
So where can donors send money, if not to the leading national Democratic organizations and candidates? To the states!
The overturning of Roe will not ban abortion throughout the U.S.; rather, it will create an environment where individual states can choose to ban or permit abortion. Some states have bans that predate Roe that will go back into effect, while others have “trigger laws” that will automatically appear on the books should Roe be struck down. The Guttmacher Institute, a nonprofit focused on reproductive rights, estimates that 26 states are certain or likely to enact bans if Roe is no longer the law of the land.
At Blue Tent, we’ve advocated for donors to give to state-level races, which are often underfunded relative to federal contests. State legislatures often draw the district maps that determine control of Congress, but they are also powerful in their own right, enacting legislation that profoundly affects the lives of their states’ residents. As Congress remains gridlocked thanks to outdated rules, these state legislatures are where actual change so often happens these days. There’s no starker illustration of this dynamic than on reproductive rights, where voters in several states may literally be deciding whether to make abortion legal or illegal. Here are some of the key contests:
In Arizona, abortion will become illegal once Roe is struck down, with anyone who performs one facing up to five years in prison. Arizona is under a GOP trifecta — meaning Republicans control the state house, state senate and governorship — but they have a one-seat majority in both chambers of the state legislature. Democrats have spent several cycles trying to flip these vital seats in Arizona, which has been trending purple, and the state legislature remains a key battleground for reproductive rights, as well as the battle over democracy (the Republican legislature has made auditing the 2020 election into a hobby). To make abortion legal in Arizona, Democrats will have to win these elusive seats in the House and Senate and flip the governor’s mansion, which will be a major challenge.
In Michigan, abortion will also become illegal. This may be surprising because of Michigan’s reputation as a blue state, but it would revert to a 1931 law that made abortion a felony. And the Michigan legislature is controlled by Republicans, who obviously have little interest in replacing that law with a pro-choice bill. If Democrats can reelect Governor Gretchen Whitmer and flip the state House and Senate (the GOP holds a three-seat majority in each chamber), they could enshrine abortion protections into law.
Maine has some of the more liberal abortion laws in the country; in 2019, it passed a bill allowing medical professionals who are not doctors to perform abortions. But its Democratic trifecta is at risk, and Republican gubernatorial candidate Paul Le Page has signaled support for restrictions on abortions. Defending Democratic majorities here will be necessary to defend reproductive rights.
In Pennsylvania, abortion access could hinge on the governor’s race. Incumbent Democrat Tom Wolf has repeatedly vetoed anti-choice legislation and has vowed to continue doing so as long as he’s in office, but he’s term-limited. Sitting Attorney General Josh Shapiro is the only Democrat running to replace him, and if he’s elected, he’ll continue Wolf’s legacy of blocking the Republican legislature from taking residents’ reproductive rights away. If Shapiro loses, however, the right to choose will be in danger in Pennsylvania (unless Democrats can somehow retake the state House or Senate, a tough task).
Attorney general races across the country are also now more important than ever. A growing number of Democratic AGs and AG candidates have pledged not to prosecute anyone for performing an abortion even if Roe is struck down and abortion becomes illegal in their states. Key AG races on this front are happening in Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida and elsewhere. Donors should also keep in mind local prosecutors’ offices, as a growing number of these prosecutors have pledged not to enforce anti-abortion laws. (See Blue Tent's brief: Winning State Attorney General Races: Options for Democratic Donors.)
How to Give: You can visit the website of the States Project to learn more about the electoral landscapes in these states and find lists of worthy legislative candidates. Sister District has endorsed several candidates in Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. You can donate to Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Shapiro here and Michigan’s Whitmer here. Swing Left has state-specific funds that split your donation among state legislative candidates, as well as federal and statewide candidates; here are the funds for Michigan and Arizona. You can donate to the Democratic Association of Attorneys General here. Finally, consider donating to an abortion fund, which, in the event of a Roe reversal, will help women in anti-abortion states access reproductive care, paying for them to travel to states where they can get services if necessary. A guide for where to give can be found here.