The one-year anniversary of the January 6 Capitol riot has reminded anyone who needed reminding that democracy in the United States feels fragile at the moment. Not just because of the unprecedentedly violent response to President Joe Biden’s election that unfolded a year ago, but because local Republican elected officials across the country seem to be willing more than ever before to meddle in the machinery of elections.
Consider the nearly 200 state legislators who, in November, signed a letter denouncing alleged “corruption and mismanagement” in the 2020 election and called for audits of the results, or the audits that have already taken place (or are ongoing) in states including Arizona (where the whole thing has been a mess) and Pennsylvania. None of these audits is likely to turn up any significant fraud; the point seems to be to erode the public’s faith (or Republican voters’ faith) in elections. And with so many GOP elected officials believing (or at least saying they believe) that Biden’s 2020 victory was illegitimate, there are fears that these officials will steal the 2024 election through a combination of pressuring election officials and potentially changing how electoral votes are counted. In a worst-case scenario, Republican-dominated state legislatures could overrule the will of voters and award a swing state’s votes to the Republican candidate.
Winning state legislatures is one way to ensure this doesn’t happen. But winning secretary of state elections also takes on added importance. These offices have in previous cycles been fairly under-the-radar affairs, but in the post-Trump era, secretary of state offices have become recognized as vital positions and a record amount of cash is flooding into these races, according to a new report by the Brennan Center. Here are several contests in swing states that donors should be looking at as the 2022 elections approach.
Michigan
Michigan’s Jocelyn Benson has an unusually high profile for a secretary of state. She has over 100,000 Twitter followers and has written a book about state secretaries of state. She also wrote a CNN op-ed (with Katie Hobbs, the Arizona secretary of state) about the need to battle misinformation. And she’s been the target of misinformation and threats of violence herself; in December, armed right-wing “stop the steal” protesters showed up at her house.
Benson won office in 2018 by a healthy 8 points (the previous occupant, a Republican, was term-limited). But that was in a Democratic wave year, and 2022 promises to be much unfriendlier territory. (Prior to 2018, Republicans had won six Michigan secretary of state elections in a row.) Benson’s profile means that the right will be energized to unseat her—and if she loses, she could be replaced by a genuinely threatening figure. Kristina Karamo, the Republican candidate Donald Trump has endorsed, has spread a bunch of conspiracy theories and seems to believe that Trump won in 2020. So while the closely divided (but Republican-controlled) Michigan state legislature will be a battleground in 2022, donors shouldn’t forget that Benson holds an important position and will be facing a brutal reelection campaign.
The good news is that Benson has already raised $1.2 million, according to campaign finance data compiled by the Brennan Center, a huge amount for a candidate for secretary of state. Her ActBlue page is here.
Arizona
Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, the incumbent, is running for governor, leaving this seat vacant. There are going to be competitive primaries on both sides of the aisle, but as in Michigan, the danger is that a Republican wins the office and uses it to manipulate the election machinery in their party’s favor. Among the GOP primary candidates are a state legislator who sponsored legislation that would have allowed the legislature to reject the will of the voters in presidential elections and another lawmaker who was invited to speak at the notorious January 6 Capitol rally. Donors concerned about Republicans taking this office should wait until the Democratic primary concludes, then funnel money to the winner.
Nevada
Nevada is in a similar situation to Arizona in that there will be a lot of jockeying before the nominees for this election are known. The worry is that Jim Marchant will be the Republican nominee. Marchant, a conspiracy theorist with ties to QAnon figures, is not the sort of person who should have any role administering elections. There are other Republican candidates who may defeat him, thankfully, and Nevada should be relatively friendly territory. Still, this is an important race to keep an eye on.
Georgia
Democrats could probably do worse than Brad Raffensperber, the Republican incumbent in Georgia, who is most famous at this point for refusing to bend when pressured by Trump to “find 11,780 votes.” This bit of backbone may be punished by GOP voters in thrall to Trump, as Congressman Jody Hice is primarying Raffesperber, and his campaign seems largely to consist of false claims about the 2020 election. (Hice is currently out-fundraising Raffensperber, if you want to know where the Republican Party is.) But even if Raffensperber wins the primary, Democrats should be competitive in the secretary of state race—Georgia is a purple state now. As with Nevada and Arizona, there’s no candidate worth donating to right now since the primary process will need to play out, but anyone donating to Stacey Abrams’s gubernatorial campaign should sprinkle some money on whoever emerges from the Democratic primary.
In that primary, the leading candidate is Bee Nguyen, a state representative who has already raised close to $400,000. But it’s probably best to wait to donate until the primary is over to ensure that your money goes entirely toward defeating the Republican candidate. If Hice pulls out a primary win, stopping him will be paramount.