With a bipartisan vote last week to pass a $1 trillion infrastructure framework, the Senate may have just killed any chance at filibuster reform for at least another year.
While the passage of the bipartisan bill may seem like cause for celebration (the bill must still pass the house, where progressives have pledged to withhold votes unless the Senate also passes a $3.5 trillion plan via reconciliation) for progressive donors and activists strategizing on ways to get the filibuster killed or reformed before 2023, this was Waterloo. Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, arch filibuster defenders both, will likely ride this bipartisan win through the 2022 midterms, deflecting any arguments to change senate rules with their recent 69 vote triumph, while the White House has gone so far as deprioritizing voting rights in an attempt to avoid a filibuster showdown.
So for progressive donors hoping to end the senate’s 60-vote requirement, what strategies are still on the table, and are any still worth supporting?
1. Keeping the pressure on Manchin and Sinema probably won’t work
Numerous local, state and national organizations have been trying to push both Manchin and Sinema to abandon the 60-vote threshold since Biden took office, but neither has budged. Biden himself is also no ally in this fight, regularly defending the filibuster and focusing on legislation with possible bipartisan appeal. That isn’t stopping many organizations from continuing in their advocacy, with the End Citizens United PAC announcing a $1 million ad campaign this week demanding the Senate toss out the filibuster to pass needed voting rights protections.
This is a strategy that made sense a week ago, in a world where the Senate continued to sputter and people like Manchin and Sinema could easily be blamed for the dysfunction. Manchin himself was wary of this happening, and said as much in a conference call with business allies leaked to The Intercept in June. Instead, Manchin, Sinema and Biden may be emboldened against their progressive critics.
End Citizens United PAC and grassroots groups like Indivisible will continue their pressure campaigns on Manchin and Sinema, as will local groups like Our Future West Virginia, the West Virginia Poor People’s Campaign, Progress Arizona and Living United for Change in Arizona (LUCHA). At Blue Tent, we believe it’s never a bad time to support grassroots organizers, but a short-term push against the filibuster is probably doomed to fail.
2. Electing more Democrats in 2022: The best (and least satisfying) option
With Manchin and Sinema as solid “no” votes against filibuster changes, there’s virtually zero chance of serious reform within the next 16 months. That means it’s time for donors to look to the midterms.
Tré Easton, a former staffer for Sen. Patty Murray who now works as a senior adviser at Battle Born Collective, told Blue Tent that donors need to quickly seek out candidates for open seats or those running to challenge Republicans, supporting those who have come out against the filibuster. Many candidates now will be fighting just for the name recognition needed to win the party nomination, let alone in November.
“Make sure they get rewarded early,” Easton advised.
Progressives running in 2022 who support gutting the filibuster include John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, Sarah Godlewski in Wisconsin, Charles Booker in Kentucky and Erica Smith in North Carolina. While midterm gains for the President’s party are rare, Democrats are governing in truly unique circumstances, with Biden maintaining strong approval ratings. If the economy holds together and the country avoids further chaos from COVID, Democrats will be in a strong position to build on their majority in the Senate given the current field. It’s no sure thing, but once 2022 passes, the options narrow even further.
3. Primaries against Sinema and Manchin from the left: Satisfying, but more of a last resort
Both Sinema and Manchin’s seats are up in 2024, and with the growing enmity toward both coming from the left, it’s hard to see neither facing a serious primary challenge should they continue backing the GOP on the filibuster. In February, three of the co-founders of Justice Democrats launched No Excuses PAC and began their search for potential Arizona and West Virginia senate candidates to challenge the two incumbents. Saikat Chakrabarti, a No Excuses co-founder and former chief of staff to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, explained to Politico that the PAC would, at the very least, put pressure on Manchin and Sinema to move left.
Manchin seems unlikely to budge, and as a well-liked Democrat in a red state, he’d be a difficult candidate to beat. Sinema, however, is a much different story. Before the passage of the infrastructure bill, the senator was bleeding support from both progressive groups and a wide swath of voters in Arizona. Polling from Data for Progress in July showed a whopping two-thirds of Arizona Democrats say they would support a primary challenger were Sinema to continue supporting the filibuster.
In addition to supporting groups like No Excuses, donors could also give to the organizations that powered Democrats to victory in Arizona in 2018 and 2020. Leaders at organizations like LUCHA, a Latino organizing group that supported Sinema, say they feel “shut out” and “betrayed” by Sinema’s continued support of the filibuster. With both well-funded progressive PACs and local organizers lining up against her in 2024, Sinema may reconsider her position. But for donors now, making a change in 2022 remains the best option.