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North Carolina is a solidly purple state. It’s a toss-up in presidential election years and has become increasingly important to capture the White House for either party.
In 2022, the state could determine control of the Senate. Incumbent Sen. Richard Burr, a Republican, is retiring, and the seat is up for grabs. The GOP field is still working itself out, but Democrats have Cheri Beasley, former chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court, as the presumptive nominee.
Beasley lost her last statewide election for a third term on the court by the narrowest of margins.
“She has won two statewide elections in 2008 and 2014, a historically difficult year for Democrats,” Beasley Communications Director Dory MacMillan told Blue Tent. “And in 2020, she outperformed almost every Democrat on the ballot, falling short by only 401 votes.”
For donors, that makes her an attractive choice. A solid Democrat with the state party’s backing, Beasley is well-positioned to amass a substantial campaign war chest, given her head start, and can already pivot to a general election message while Republicans bicker and figure out who will be their standard bearer.
“She’s in full campaign mode at this point,” Jillian Johnson, a Durham City Council member, told Blue Tent.
Organizers are on board, too. Theo Luebke, co-director of the grassroots organization Carolina Federation, told Blue Tent that the group is ready to pull out all the stops to get Beasley to Washington after the 2020 court loss.
“We anticipate that race is going to be very close,” Luebke said. “And we think that the quality of our work that we can do on the electoral mobilizations can make a difference.”
Beasley will need every vote she can get in a year that promises to be tough for all Democratic candidates. Both 538 and Sabato Crystal Ball rate this race as Lean Republican, while Cook Political Report rates it as a Toss-up. To win, Beasley must overcome strong political headwinds and again outperform Biden in the state.
She’ll also need money. In 2020, the North Carolina Senate race cost $300 million, a record. Beasley’s fundraising numbers outstrip her rivals in the crowded GOP field, but while she’s leading the statewide pack for now, she’s trailing other Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate around the country. At the end of 2021, Beasley had only $2.8 million on hand. Florida’s Val Demings, in contrast, had over $8 million. After the May 17 primary, Republicans, who are just as aware as Democrats of the importance of the state to federal politics and will work to hold the seat left by retiring Burr, will start pouring cash into this critical race. (See why Blue Tent recommends supporting Beasley’s campaign.)
The Senate seat isn’t the only one on deck. There also may be a fierce battle over one or two House seats in the state after the U.S. Supreme Court let stand a more competitive redistricting map.
In addition, two seats on the State Supreme Court are up for election in 2022. Incumbent Democratic Justice Sam J. Ervin IV is running for his second term on Seat 5 while Seat 3’s incumbent Democrat Robin Hudson has declined to run again, leaving an opening for Democrat Lucy Inman or Republican Richard Dietz. Just one of those seats flipping red would change the balance of the court.